My Gut Versus One of the Experts in the Field

Karl Case, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index, is says that he expects housing to bottom out by the end of this year.

I disagree. First, you always get overshoot when a bubble collapses, and there are too many shadow foreclosures out there, where banks have not listed the properties, or are delaying foreclosures because their hands/balance sheets are full.

If I had an investment decision on it, I'd probably go with Karl Case, but I don't, so I'll stick with my prediction.

You may see a bottom in the worst hit places, like California, which is down 42% year over year (!), sooner than that, but a too much "wealth" has simply been destroyed for a recovery this year.

I do not expect an uptick until sometime after 2012.