03 May 2016

Here Is the Latest Scare Story about a Brexit

It appears that a French economist with close ties to the government is makign dire predictions about what would happen if the UK votes to leave the euro:
Eurozone economies would gain at the expense of Britain if the UK voted to leave the EU, a leading French economist has predicted, with a relocation of financial activity out of London causing sterling to plummet.

Mathilde Lemoine, a prominent member of the French government’s budgetary watchdog and chief economist of the Edmond de Rothschild private bank, said sterling could rapidly fall 34 per cent against the euro.

The report by the private bank demonstrated how European finance houses could profit from Brexit if the Leave campaign wins the referendum on June 23.

Ms Lemoine, also a former adviser to the French prime minister, wrote that the rapid relocation of financial activity would add to the “brutal drop” in sterling she expects after a vote for Brexit.

Such a vote, she said, would “immediately” reopen the question of the location of clearing houses for eurozone business, which are mostly in London after the UK government won a case last year in the European Court of Justice. It ruled against the European Central Bank’s requirement that clearing houses of euro-denominated business between European banks had to be based in the eurozone and regulated by the ECB.

After a Brexit vote, “it is certain that the grounds for the European Court of Justice’s decision would no longer exist,” Ms Lemoine wrote. “As a result, the European Council could immediately require clearing houses handling euro transactions to be located in the eurozone. On our calculations, sterling would fall 34 per cent against the euro in the space of three months”.
It's enough to make one want to invoke the proverbial briar patch.

If  Lemoine's predictions are true, this win for the UK:
  • Finance moves out
    • Should reduce insane real estate prices in and around London.
    • Restructuring of the economy from finance is better for 99+% of the people with less inequality, and more productive industry.
    • The corruption influence of finance and other rent seeking industries on the political system is reduced.
    • Intellectual capital that is otherwise wasted on finance and banking returns to productive pursuits.
  • Pound falls.
    • Trade balance improves, because imports are more expensive, and exports are cheaper.
    • Inflation increases, which solves the UK's current disinflation, which will make recovery better, because people are less inclined to hoard money, and inflation devalues debts.
This horror story really isn't particularly horrible.


Post a Comment