03 March 2016

For Sanders Supporters Who are Silver Lining Types

First, note that the primaries are structured that all of Clinton's strong states will be done by mid March.

Basically, the southern states, the ones that won't vote for a Democrat, are relatively early in the process:
I'm keeping this short to put a very simple idea into your head. Because of the way the Democratic Party voting calendar is structured this year, Clinton's largest lead will occur on March 15. After that, most of Sanders' strongest states will vote.

What this means is simple:
  • Hillary Clinton will grow her lead until the March 15 states have voted.
  • Bernie Sanders will erase that lead — partly or completely — after March 15.
  • How much of Clinton's lead he will erase depends on your not buying what the media is selling — that the contest is over.
  • In most scenarios where Sanders wins, he doesn't retake the lead until June 7, when five states including California cast their ballots.
March 15 is the Ides of March; a good way to remember the date. The message — gear up for a battle after the Ides of March, and don't let the establishment media tell you what to think. They won't be right until the last state has voted.

If you want to stop reading here, this is all you need to know.


Bottom line — Super Tuesday is upon us, and what's bad for Sanders supporters on March 1 is going to look worse for a few weeks. Stay heartened. Whatever the result in March, this isn't over until June, after Sanders' best states have voted as well.
(Emphasis Original)

This is not surprising. Both of the party establishments have attempted to front load the the south, the Republicans because they double down on racism, and the Democrats because they want to forestall the liberal wing of the party. (Super Tuesday was largely a product of the right wing of the right wing of the Democratic Party.)

This raises an interesting question, "Does Sanders have the resources go to distance?"

The answer is clearly, "Yes."

In fact, it is very likely that Sanders has more Cash on Hand than Clinton does:  (Note that this does not include Super PAC money, but that money does not go as far, because it cannot be targeted as flexibly)
Hillary Clinton raised $30 million in February and has $31 million on hand, her campaign announced on Wednesday — far less than Bernie Sanders.


Her rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, raised $43 million in February, with $6 million of that coming on Monday. Sanders' campaign has not announced its cash on hand, but as of the end of January, he had nearly $15 million in the bank.
Sanders Raised $20 million to Clinton's $15 million in January.

So, Sanders raised $63 million in the first two months of the year, and Clinton raised $37 million, and she has $31 million cash on hand, and we can be reasonably certain that the Sanders campaign has a lower burn rate than Clinton, because she is employing a lot of high powered consultants, and has a far more extensive fundraising apparatus.

Assuming the same spending rates, and Hillary and Bernie would be neck and neck in cash on hand.

My guess is that Bernie is a few million ahead, and Hillary's big donors are running into campaign finance limits, so the Sanders campaign can take this to the convention.


Anonymous said...

Clinton has 31M "cash on hand." Sorry - you lose.

Matthew Saroff said...

Sanders had $15 million at the end of January. He outraised Clinton by $13 million in February.

Clinton had $31 million cash on hand at the end of February.

If they both spent at the same rate, Sanders would have $28 million to Clinton's $31 million.

However, Sanders has a lower burn rate, which means that there is a non-zero chance that he's ahead in cash right now.

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