Were F%$#ed

Today in anthropogenic climate change, we have the Hoover Dam on the verge of being unable to generate power, and methane emissions are jumping in Siberia.

Not good.

From the rim of Lake Powell, you can’t see the danger line. There isn’t a flashing gauge or a chart on the canyon wall that warns visitors when one of the most important machines in America begins to fail. There’s only an invisible number: 3,490 feet above sea level.

Engineers call it “minimum power pool.” Above that elevation, Lake Powell can still push water through Glen Canyon Dam’s massive penstocks, spin its turbines, and send electricity across the Southwest with no trouble. Below it, the dam loses the function that helped justify its existence. The river still wants to move, but the machine starts running out of ways to move it.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the international date line:

Methane emissions from Siberia have more than doubled over the past decade, according to new research co-led by scientists at the University of Edinburgh’s National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO).

The study, initiated as a collaborative project with researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences during their stay at the University of Edinburgh, reveals that rapid warming, alongside increasing wildfires and shifting wetland activity, is driving a sharp rise in methane emissions from the vast permafrost regions of northern Russia. The findings raise concerns that these accelerating emissions could undermine effects to meet global climate targets.

Major rise in potent greenhouse gas

The international research team, including NCEO scientists based at the University of Edinburgh, analysed satellite and atmospheric data spanning 2010 to 2023. They found that methane emissions across Siberia have been rising by around 5% per year, with emissions during the summer growing season now more than twice as high as in 2010.

Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas, trapping significantly more heat than carbon dioxide over short timescales, and is a major contributor to global warming.

 Things are going to hell even faster than the most pessimistic climate experts have predicted.

A Fortunate Failure

The Trump administration has done its best to hamstring wind power.  Its primary tool for this is stopping required reviews of new wind farms by the Pentagon.

The courts are having none of it.

On Thursday, a US District Court in Oregon ordered the US government to restart the process of approving wind projects. All new wind development in the US has been on hold since August 2025, when the Department of Defense (DoD) stopped participating in a process that allows it to compel developers to alter projects in order to limit their interference with radar equipment. The court ruled, however, that the DoD’s national security claims did not allow it to opt out of a process that is legally mandated.

The Trump administration has made many attempts to block wind development, both offshore and land based. Its attempts to stop offshore wind included the same approach at issue in this case: Claim that drone developments mean that radar interference by wind turbines creates a national security risk. The courts were not sympathetic to this claim, including in cases where judges examined a classified report that the DoD was using to justify blocking offshore wind construction. As a result, the administration has turned to paying companies not to pursue wind development.

In parallel, the government was pursuing a similar approach for onshore wind. Here, a law lays out a process for the DoD to evaluate any problems posed by wind turbines and negotiate changes to planned wind farms with the developers. As laid out in the new decision, the government simply stopped participating in this process in August 2025, first by refusing to sign off on previously negotiated agreements, and later by refusing to draft agreements entirely. Eventually, it simply refused to participate in negotiations at all. This has brought a halt to all wind development in the US.

………

Nothing in that framework allows the DoD to simply stop participating in the process. “If DoD wishes to alter the statutory scheme, it can ask Congress to do so,” Immergut wrote. In the absence of congressional action, the DoD can’t simply ignore the law.

The ruling orders the DoD to resume the process of approving wind projects using the congressionally mandated schedule and to report back every 30 days on its progress.

 

A Good Start

In response to concerns about stability of the power grid, the Public Utility Commission of Texas has halted power connections for data centers,

Given the rather precarious state of Texas' power grid, this is good policy ……… In Texas ……… Will wonders ever cease?

Nowhere is the US data center boom bigger than in Texas. But less than a year after declaring Texas the “epicenter of AI development,” Governor Greg Abbott has declared a moratorium on all new power grid connections for data centers—at least until developers provide more information about their projects’ potential impacts on the grid and communities.

The Republican governor directed regulators in an August 3 announcement at the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the grid operators at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to perform a “comprehensive verification and audit of all data centers advancing through ERCOT’s interconnection process.” As an independent system operator, ERCOT oversees a power grid that operates separately from the rest of the United States and provides services to most of Texas.

………

Abbott also directed state regulators and grid operators to discover the extent to which data centers’ cooling systems and water usage may draw upon local water supplies needed by local communities. However, the governor’s directive does not mention the fact that data centers often use much more water through their power generation sources than directly through their cooling systems—a fact highlighted by researchers like Shaolei Ren at the University of California, Riverside.

First Tom Delay, and now this.  

Would someone find out what it is that they have been smoking in Texas recently, and have 20 grams sent to me. 

Common Sense in the UK

Given the large number of applications for power connections for data centers that are either never built or delayed, the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) is proposing a substantial fee for grid connection requests from data centers.

Given that these requests result in significant costs which are largely borne by the rate-payers, this makes a lot of sense.

Ofgem is seeking feedback on proposals to levy a fee on datacenter development projects at the time they apply for a grid connection.

The move aims to discourage companies from seeking approval for speculative applications that clog up the pipeline and cause connection delays, without ever resulting in finished datacenters.

The UK regulator for electricity and gas says connection applications for electrical supply have surged from 41 gigawatts (GW) to 125 GW in under a year, with datacenters accounting for at least 80 GW of the new demand.

………

Ofgem is proposing a Datacenter Commitment Fee paid by the developers of large server farm projects when accepting a grid connection offer. The fee would be refunded once the facility is drawing power, or forfeited if the project exits the queue early instead.

That refund bit I do not approve of.  Data center power provisioning levies large external costs on the grid, and the AI grifters should be made to pay for that.

Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud ……… Under Oath

In news that is surprising only because they admitted guilt, Trump and his Evil Minions™ have admitted that they cancelled grants because they came from states that did not vote for him.

Impeach Trump, Impeach Vance, jail the lot of them. 

When the Trump administration canceled more than $7.5 billion in Biden-era federal grants for clean energy projects in October, it framed the move as an urgent corrective to protect taxpayer funds from waste.

But it wasn’t true.

In little-noticed court documents, federal officials acknowledged this month that they had terminated the funding “based solely” on political criteria, targeting projects in states that were represented by Democrats and had voted for Kamala Harris, the party’s presidential nominee, in the 2024 election.

The admission showed how President Trump has weaponized the provision of federal education, energy, health, housing and infrastructure aid in his second term. Far from rooting out the sort of misspending that Mr. Trump sees as rife in Washington, the White House has instead sought to leverage the budget as a tool to assist its allies — or as a cudgel to hurt the president’s foes.

This is f%$#ed up and sh%$.

Partying Like It's 2008

The Wisconsin PSC just through a major monkey-wrench into Oracle's plans to build a data center there when it announced that because of its recent downgrade by S&P to BBB-, the roach motel of software companies will have to post a $7,000,000,000.00 bond in order to be hooked into the grid.

It is refreshing to see that a billionaire cannot buy his way into regulatory forbearance somewhere. 

Oracle says that it could face more than $100 million a year in financing costs to guarantee the power commitments behind a nearly 1 GW datacenter campus it is developing in Wisconsin with Vantage and OpenAI.

Local regulators have refused to revisit a decision that they say protects existing customers and improves public transparency around the energy-related needs of datacenters.

Oracle's plans to build the Lighthouse Campus datacenter in Port Washington are supported by local utility We Energies. The campus is expected to require nearly a gigawatt of power.

The Public Service Commission (PSC) of Wisconsin, an energy regulator, told the Financial Times it had "declined to take action" on a petition seeking to reopen or overturn its earlier decision.

In April, the PSC considered We Energies' application for Very Large Customer (VLC) and Bespoke Resources Tariff status around the datacenter. Among the modifications to improve the tariff was a revision "to address the risk of transmission cost shifting from dataCenter customers to existing customers."

In an affidavit supporting the joint petition to reopen or rehear the decision, Oracle explained that if the decision was not modified, it would have to post security in a cash deposit or a letter of credit.

"Based on our current projections, we anticipate that, under the current mandated requirements, we will ultimately be required to post financial security, likely in the form of a letter of credit in an amount exceeding $7 billion, at an annual cost that could exceed $100 million," the document said.

To qualify for an exemption, Oracle would have to meet several tests, including maintaining ratings of at least A- from S&P and A3 from Moody's. At the time of the PSC decision, S&P rated Oracle BBB, but downgraded it to BBB- earlier this month.

"We estimate that OpenAI makes up roughly half of the $638 billion in (Oracle's) remaining performance obligations (RPO)," S&P said. "OpenAI's ability to meet its contractual obligations and raise external financing will be contingent upon AI tailwinds continuing and its models being market leaders. If OpenAI were unable to pay Oracle, we believe Oracle could be left with massive datacenter leases that it might be unable to exit or have to re-lease to new tenants under less-favorable terms."

………

In September last year, Oracle's valuation rocketed after it boasted $455 billion in RPOs, $300 billion of which turned out to be for OpenAI.

In the period since, Oracle has raised debt to fund its datacenter building program and has negative free cash flow.

S&P said Oracle's capex guidance had risen to between $90 billion and $95 billion for fiscal 2027, which started in June, up from an earlier forecast of $60 billion. For the same period, S&P forecasts negative free operating cash flow of $42 billion, worse than its previous estimate of negative $24 billion.

Yes, this does remind me of early 2008.  We are seeing signs of the credit markets slowly freezing up.

It's only going to get worse. 

Gnarly

So, Trump has resumed airstrikes on Iran, and Iran has retaliated, killing at least 2 American soldiers operating air defense units in Jordan, along with strikes on Kuwaiti desalination and power plant.

From a tactical perspective, it appears that the Iranians have better targeting capabilities, as they are hitting specific military targets for tactical advantage, while the US is blowing up bruidges and drinking water infrastructure.  

Meanwhile, it looks like the international fossil fuel markets are getting skittish, and may be going into full panic mode if the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz continue.

We've lost this war, and the sooner that this is acknowledged by the PTB, the better. 

Meanwhile, in the Empire State

New York Governor Kathy Hochul has issued an order pausing data center projects.

I do not think that this will be permanent, Hochul is a corporate Dem, and she wants those campaign donations, but she is a pretty reliable political weather vane, which makes this a sort of, "Flaming Datum" of the current political climate.

Everyone hates data centers with a passion.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul on Tuesday paused incomplete state environmental permit applications for large datacenters while officials work out new rules, a process expected to take up to a year.

The order makes New York the first state to enact such a moratorium amid growing concerns over AI datacenters' impact on utility rates and public health.

“New York has always been at the forefront of innovation and change but we’ve also always guaranteed that New Yorkers benefit. As data center development threatens to hike up utility bills, deplete our natural resources, and create uncertainty for New Yorkers, it’s my responsibility to take action and lead,” Hochul said in a canned statement.

The order specifically targets large hyperscale datacenters capable of consuming at least 50 MW, subject to exemptions for manufacturing, research, education, and medical facilities. Prior to the AI boom, 50 megawatts would have been considered a large cloud campus.

Speaking of the Ongoing War

Trump has announced that the cease fire has ended and that the United States will resume its blockade on Iran and charge a 20% fee on all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

I'm not sure what the legal justification is for charging such a fee, and in announcing the blockade he is announcing a resumption of war against Iran.  (It's why Kennedy called the blockade of Cuba during the Missile Crisis an, "Embargo.")

The fee that President Trump wants to charge ships going through the Strait of Hormuz would significantly increase the cost of transporting oil and other products through the crucial waterway, shipping operators and logistics experts said.

On Monday, Mr. Trump said the United States would charge a 20 percent fee on all cargo shipped through the strait, as a way to recover the cost of providing military protection to vessels using the waterway.

……… 

Mr. Trump did not explain exactly how the 20 percent fee would be calculated.

But if it were charged on the value of the cargo, it could more than double the cost of shipping oil through the strait.

Scores of ships have gone through the strait with Iran’s permission, taking routes close to the Iranian coast. On Monday, Mr. Trump said he was reinstating a U.S. naval blockade of ships that use Iranian ports.

……… 

In late June, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law.” 

He forgets the most important internal law, "We don't care, we don't have to, we are the United States of America mother f%$#ers."

A New Fusion Complication

One of the outputs from a fusion reaction is a f%$# tonne of neutrons, and as such, one could generate relatively large quantities of Pu239 and U233, which raises significant proliferation issues.

Billions of dollars in venture capital and state investments have recently been poured into efforts to finally make nuclear fusion a viable energy source—big bets that a futuristic leap is coming soon, despite decades of premature prognostications.

Plenty of hurdles remain, of course, from engineering a system that can safely contain the literal power of a burning Sun to ensuring that such a system would be stable enough, consistently enough, for 24/7 use as an energy utility. Now, a particle physicist at Virginia Tech and physicists at Princeton have added a new hurdle to this race to crack fusion: How do we prevent rogue actors from secretly using their fusion plant to stockpile a nuclear arsenal?

Patrick Huber at VT’s Center for Neutrino Physics and Robert Goldston at Princeton’s Plasma Physics Laboratory zeroed in on this unintended consequence specifically for the case of deuterium-tritium (DT) fusion reactors. DT methods have shown great promise in U.S. government tests recently, tapping into a flow of energetic neutron particles created as its supply of hydrogen isotopes fuses into helium atoms. But those substantial neutron fluxes, Huber and Goldston noted, “could be used for covert production of fissile materials.”

“When operated in such a mode, a gigawatt scale fusion reactor could in principle produce tens of kilograms of plutonium or uranium-233 per week,” the researchers calculated in their new study, published Tuesday in the journal Physical Review Applied.

This is not a surprise actually, the neutron output of fusion reactions are generally used to generate Tritium for future use of the reactor.

Actually, non-break-even room temperature fusion reactions have been used as a neutron generator for years.  

You can buy them buy them from Fischer Scientific.

I Hate Reruns

So, Trump has declared that the cease fire has ended, and the US is launching strikes on Iran while Iran has responded in kind.  (Also, the US has revoked its waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil, which counts for little giving that the shooting war has started up again.)

I expect to see gas price increases returning shortly. 

 

Finally

 The power is back on.

STILL Waiting for BGE

 Being without power is no fun at all.

Still No Power

 It appears that we have been collateral damage to God smiting Donald Trump's July 4th celebrations.

Good News Everyone!

For the first time ever, solar energy has generated more electricity than coal in the United States.

This is not a surprise.  Solar energy is now cheaper than coal power, the capital investment is lower, and the time from concept from rollout to service entry is lower.

For the first time on record, solar power has generated more electricity than coal in the United States, marking a structural shift in the country’s electricity mix and the accelerating role of renewables in the grid. In May 2026, solar accounted for approximately 12.8% of U.S. electricity generation, while coal accounted for about 12.2%. This marks the first monthly period in which solar surpassed coal in electricity output.

Solar’s record output during the month is is due in part to the seasonal conditions that increase daytime generation. Growth in solar also comes from both utility-scale installations and distributed systems across multiple states. At the same time, coal generation continued its long-term downward trend due to plant retirements, reduced utilization, and competition from lower-cost energy sources. Coal plants also increasingly operate below full capacity, which reduces their overall share of total electricity generation even when facilities remain active. This moment does not signal the end of coal, but it confirms a shift in the structure of electricity production in the U.S. The result is a grid that now relies more heavily on variable renewable energy, with solar playing a growing role in meeting daytime demand and offsetting fossil fuel generation.

………

Across regions, solar growth is being driven by declining technology costs, faster deployment timelines compared to fossil fuel infrastructure, and policy frameworks that prioritize renewable energy expansion. The solar-over-coal crossover reflects more than a statistical milestone. It signals a broader reconfiguration of electricity systems toward modular, rapidly deployable energy sources that can scale faster than traditional fossil fuel infrastructure.

This is a good thing.  The faster that we get off coal, the better.

The Last Refuge of Scoundrels

So, the Pentagon has been refusing to review new wind power projects, and now a group of renewable energy organizations have filed a lawsuit to end this mishugas.

About f%^$#ing time.

A coalition of renewable energy groups asked a federal court on Friday to order the Pentagon to resume reviews of onshore wind projects, in an attempt to end delays by the Trump administration that have brought the U.S. wind power industry to a standstill.

Since April, the Pentagon has stopped all military reviews of proposed wind farms, which are meant to ensure that turbines don’t interfere with local radar or flight paths. Virtually every new wind project in the country needs to undergo these reviews, which until recently were considered routine and often completed within months.

………

The delays have led to a “total halt of all wind development in the United States,” the groups told the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon in a lawsuit filed against the Defense Department last week. At least 106 planned wind projects in 21 states have been stalled indefinitely, representing an estimated $47 billion in potential investment.

The delayed reviews are the latest in a series of extraordinary actions by the Trump administration to halt the expansion of wind power in the United States. On his first day in office, President Trump issued a moratorium on all approvals for wind farms on federal lands, and the Interior Department last year issued stop-work orders for five wind farms in the Atlantic Ocean that were already under construction. More recently, the administration agreed to pay several companies $1.8 billion to abandon their offshore wind plans.

Mr. Trump has called wind turbines ugly and expensive, and has instead pushed to meet rising power demand with fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.

“My goal,” he said in January, “is to not let any windmill be built.”

One does hope that whatever judge gets assigned to the case makes it clear to the government that there is no presumption of regularity, and so they will have to provide evidence supporting every "and" and "the".

Good News on the Renewables Front

Arizona's extra fees to solar power users has been struck down in state court.

After years in the courts, the Arizona Court of Appeals ruled in favor of Vote Solar, striking down the Arizona Corporation Commission’s (ACC) approval of discriminatory charges for customers of Arizona Public Service (APS) who have rooftop solar. In its decision, the Arizona Court of Appeals vacated the solar fees, ruling that they were imposed in an unfair manner that violated due process requirements.

APS, a regulated utility powering 1.4 million households and businesses in Arizona, first created the solar fees in its 2022 rate case, and they currently amount to roughly $2 to $3 in additional monthly charges for households with rooftop solar. Vote Solar filed an appeal in 2025 against the “grid access charge.”

APS has proposed to increase the fees to roughly $6 per month in its current rate case, which is under consideration at the ACC. Vote Solar, the Arizona Center for Law in the Public Interest (ACLPI) and Earthjustice are opposing the fee in that case as well.

This ruling is about not notifying the public, and not following their own rules, and not about the underlying merits of this fee.

I don't think that the fee will be reinstated, because the ruling requires proper procedure and advance public notice, and if they cannot sneak it in, public outrage would likely force the utility and the regulators to back down. 

Speaking of the Predictions of Nostra-Dumbass, a Deal Got Signed with Iran

I got it wrong when I said that there was no deal on the table as well.  There will be a signing a deal in Switzerland. (Apparently Trump signed the deal at Versailles, doubtless while eating cake.)

You gotta hand it to the Islamic Republic of Iran.  It took the Vietnamese 14 years to defeat us, it took the Afghans about 20 years, and it took the Iraqis about 6 years.

It took the Iranians about 16 weeks to kick our ass, as demonstrated by this 14 paragraph memorandum. 

A quick summary of the deal.

1. The end of hostilities, including in Lebanon, and this applies to Israel as well.
2.  Mutual respect of Iranian and US sovereignty.
3. A 60 day deadline this deal unless both sides agree to extend it.
4. The US will end its blockade and remove some troops in 30 days and Iran.
5. Iran will charge no transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days.
6. Iran gets $300,000,000,000.00 in aid to rebuild. (Maybe not from the US)
7. The US will waive all sanctions immediately and rescind all sanctions as quickly as is practical including those by the UN Security Council and the IAEA.
8. Iran will not develop nuclear weapons.
9. An agreement to remain at the pre-hostilities status quo. 
10. The US agrees not to create or renew any sanctions.
11. The US agrees to release frozen and seized Iranian assets.
12. There will be some sort of arrangement to enforce the final deal.
13. Final status negotiations when paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 are all being implemented. 
14. This agreement shall be formally approved by the UN Security Council.

So, the US withdraws troops from the area, ends the blockade, releases Iranian assets, ends sanctions, arranges for Iran to get three hundred billion dollars, and leans on Israel to end its attacks on Lebanon.

In return, the Iranians agree not to develop nuclear weapons (which they have always said was the case) and not to charge transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. 

It's a loss for the United States, and even the New York Times Editorial Board noticed and took a break from polishing Trump's balls to say this.

Finally

State Attorneys General in New York, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont are over payments made to French firm TotalEnergies to shut down their offshore wind projects.

New York’s attorney general is leading a lawsuit against the Trump administration to challenge its deal that put an end to a French energy company’s offshore wind projects.

As part of an agreement with the Trump administration, TotalEnergies said in March it would stop developing offshore wind projects in the U.S. and will instead invest in oil and gas production in the country. The government said the company would be paid $928 million—the value of its offshore wind leases—which would then be reinvested into oil and gas projects.

The lawsuit was filed on Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia by attorneys general from New York, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont.

“We are fighting back to stop this illegal agreement that threatens to erase over a thousand union jobs and cheat millions of New Yorkers out of clean, affordable energy,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said.TotalEnergies has said it won’t pursue any further offshore wind leases in the U.S.

“This pay-not-to-play scheme pressuring a foreign company to forgo planned offshore wind projects in America in favor of gas and oil drilling is an outrageous abuse of taxpayer dollars that hurts our ability to meet our energy needs, create good jobs, and help secure American energy independence while reducing emissions,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said.

It should be noted that before the payment was made, Trump attempted to shut down the program through executive order, and when he lost in court, made it clear that he would continue harassing TotalEnergies, and then offered a payment for them to shut down the project.

This is protection racket gangster bullsh%$.

Meanwhile, In the Persian Gulf

So, it appears that an Iranian drone took down an Apache helicopter and Trump launched retaliatory attacks on Iran, including strikes on at least two reservoirs, (Yes this is a war crime according to black letter international law) and then Iran responded by striking US bases and US related infrastructure among Gulf nations.

A US Army helicopter gunship was apparently struck by an Iranian Shahed drone before going down near the Strait of Hormuz—but it’s unclear whether the one-way attack drone was deliberately aimed or achieved more of a lucky accidental strike.

Axios correspondent Barak Ravid first reported an unnamed US government official’s comments that an Iranian drone had hit the US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter before the latter went down on June 8. The New York Times later confirmed that reporting through more anonymous US officials, including one official who said US military investigators were still evaluating whether the Iranian drone strike on the helicopter was intentional or accidental.

………

The basic models of Iranian Shahed drones rely on GPS satellite guidance and preprogrammed coordinates to strike stationary targets from long range and are not usually designed to track and strike moving targets, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, DC, in an interview with The New York Times. But he suggested that Iran may have received newer Russian-modified Shahed drones that can be remotely operated to strike targets in motion.

Whatever the case, the result is that an Iranian drone that usually costs about $35,000 managed to take down a US Army helicopter with a price tag of $25 million. The only silver lining for the US military was its successful rescue of both helicopter crew members from the water due to the unprecedented use of a drone boat.

………

Trump was initially inclined to shrug off the Apache helicopter’s downing after the pilots were rescued, according to The Wall Street Journal. But the president apparently changed his mind during a White House briefing when both Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine “recommended military action” and shared more details about the Iranian Shahed drone striking the US helicopter.

The strikes from US fighter jets targeted Iranian air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US Central Command press release. But Iran’s state broadcaster claimed the US military strikes also damaged water tanks and cut off the water supply for at least 20,000 people in Hormozgan province.

Iran also retaliated by launching yet another round of Iranian missile and drone attacks against Gulf countries such as Bahrain and Kuwait, along with Jordan, according to The New York Times. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an Iranian paramilitary force, said it had targeted US bases in the region, including the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, while claiming to shoot down yet another US MQ-9 Reaper drone.

More on the strikes on the reservoirs: (Also see the mealy mouthed confirmation from what Atrios calls that f%$#ing paper)

The United States and Iran engaged in some of the most intense fighting overnight since all-out hostilities in the ongoing US‑Israeli war on Iran were halted with a Pakistan‑mediated temporary ceasefire on April 8.

A comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive as Iran and the US have exchanged a series of proposals and counterproposals in the weeks since that pause. After a string of smaller escalations, however, the US struck targets in Iran following the downing of a US Apache helicopter close to the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and Iran retaliated by hitting US military bases in the Gulf.

The US military said it targeted communications and radar facilities. Iranian officials, however, said civilian infrastructure was also damaged, including two water reservoirs.

If correct, this is the first reported strike on civilian infrastructure in Iran in several weeks, but it comes at a time when Iran is facing a severe water shortage.

Yeah, US military has forsworn attacks on civilian infrastructure for a few weeks, what sweethearts.

And Trump provides yet more evidence that he's senile or profoundly stupid:

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he was "shocked" that Iran attacked neighboring Gulf states in retaliation to U.S. and Israeli strikes, insisting that nobody could have predicted such a response.

"They weren't supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. So they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked," Trump said at a White House event.

He doubled down hours later, stating that "the UAE is like the banker for Iran. Qatar, they are neighbors and got along okay. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain. No expert would say that's gonna happen. It's not a question of 'gee should you have known' - and if we did, big deal. We have to do what we have to do," he said in the Oval Office.

In reality, many experts have long warned that Iran was willing and prepared to strike these countries. Iran itself further warned explicitly that neighboring states hosting U.S. military bases could be targeted as part of its deterrence strategy.

I wonder how much longer they can to maintain this façade, because world inventories of oil and other distillates have fallen off of a cliff.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open tomorrow, these inventories would take about 6 weeks to see new oil.

I honestly expect to see 1973-style gas lines in the United States.