23 October 2008

Juror Goes Missing in Stevens Trial

We've had complaint about one juror from the other 11, and now we have a juror going missing, because of a family emergency, and cannot be reached.

No clue as to what the judge might do if the person does not show up tomorrow morning.

This trial is really shaping up to be a clusterf$#@.

Bush Caved Completely in Status of Forces Agreement

The Washington Independent has the scoop. Basically, Bush and His Evil Minionscompletely caved to Iraqi demands.

You'll recall that they pushed back the date to 2011, for, as Nouri al-Maliki admitted, for US domestic political reasons, and that is what it says in sub-article one of article 25 of the agreement:
The U.S. forces shall withdraw from Iraqi territories no later than December 31 2011.
But wait, there's more, there is also sub-article 6:
U.S. forces may withdraw from Iraq before the dates indicated in this article if either of the two sides should so request. The U.S. government recognizes the Iraqi government’s sovereign right to request a withdrawal of U.S. forces at anytime.
So we leave when we're told to leave by al Maliki, and indirectly by his sponsors in the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan Is Shocked At Meltdownan

So now Greenspan is shocked that a completely unregulated market leads to irrational speculation and abuse.

At the core of the theory capitalism is the idea that selfish people thinking only of themselves are what make the system work.*

If you had ever gotten your head far enough out of Ayn Rand's long dead festering ass, you would have noticed that there were dozens, if not hundreds, of people you worked with who told you that this was going to happen.

You sir, are not a tool, because a tool has a use.

*Yes, I am paraphrasing Keynes.

Economics Update

I think that the first story is a real biggie, the Insurance Bureau at the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan has forbidden Insurance companies in that nation* from buying mortgage backed securities from the GSEs, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.

The scare quote of the article is, The FSC has not only limited insurance company exposure to Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie bonds and mortgage-backed securities, but has decided that existing credit ratings are meaningless."

Taiwan is not huge in relation to world GDP, but it's a lot bigger than Iceland....We may be seeing the first furtive steps toward an exit that will likely end in a stampede.

If I'm wrong about a stampede away from US securities, it's clear that there
is a stampede away from hedge funds...Makes sense, why pay these guys something like 20% when they are losing money.

In the real world or ordinary people and work, the weekly US jobless claims were worse than forecast, 478,000. The standard caveat about this being a noisy metric applies.

I would be remiss in not noting that the 4 week moving average fell, to 480,250 from 484,750.

BTW, it looks like the credit crunch is not near over, because very little let up on interest rate spreads. (H/T Calculated Risk.)

For what it's worth, Oil prices were up a bit, because there are indications that OPEC might actually make a small supply reduction stick amongst its members.

The thing that really scares me is the fact that Washington Mutual's Credit Default Swaps will be sold at 57¢ on the dollar, and this is considered a relief to investors.

Even scarier is the little note at the bottom that losses in the Lehman debacle, when investors got 8¢ on the dollar ended up losing less money than expected, because it was a small group who all sold in a big circle to each other.

What happens when one of the members of this circle jerk goes down in flames?

*Or whatever the frack the Taiwan's status is right now.

He Could Have Been a Republican

Well, late Austrian bigot and racist Jörg Haider has has now been outed as gay.

You can be hardline on immigration without being a bigot, but Mr. Haider never made the effort.

I guess he can share a room in hell with J. Edgar Hoover.

It would be nice if we lived in a world that did not need closets.

On Al-Qaeda Supports John McCain

This is a no brainer for them.

When you have to choose an opponent, you always want the stupid one.

They are openly considering a terrorist attack on the US to boost the McCain campaign.

Not without precedent. Osama bin Laden released a statement a few days before the election in 2004, because he realized that Bush and His Evil Minions made his job a lot easier.

They are Lucky that they are White Folk

Because we now have a report that Iceland is going to accept an IMF bailout in the amount of $6 billion, about $18,740.10 per person living there, and about 1/2 of the island's GDP.

Luckily for them, they are white, because the "strict measures" to be demanded by the IMF will be along the lines of, "a stipulation that Iceland quickly deleverage its three nationalized banks Kaupthing, Landsbanki and Glitner."

If they were more darkly complected, you would likely see things demanded like a reduction of the minimum wage, the abolition of free primary schooling, the abolition of the government health care system, higher sales taxes and lower income taxes to favor investors, the sale of public utilities to foreign investors, a roll back of labor rights and employment protections, and aggressive measures to depress domestic consumption at because it would theoretically benefit exports.

BTW, that the last one is called creating poverty, which is fine for the n*gg*rs, but just wouldn't do for the pale skinned blue eyed folk.

Countrywide, the Gift that Keeps on Giving

Well, it looks like one of my predictions, that Citi CEO Ken Lewis would be shown to be a complete moron to take on the corrupt and insolvent mortgage lender Countrywide Financial is turning out to be true.

Cases in the point: Countrywide, and thus Citi is being sued over accusations it blackballed appraisers who gave accurate assessments of property values, and Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation just forbade them from making new loans in the state for the foreseeable future.

Just in Case You Were Wondering How Frozen Up The Credit Markets Are

They are now finding that companies in bankruptcy cannot ginf debtor-in-possession and exit financing (DIP loans), which are used to provide cash to companies in reorg.
Debtor-in-possession, or DIP, financing is essential for the lawyers, layoffs and other restructuring necessary for a company's rebirth. Exit financing is used when a company "exits" reorganization. Banks have been eager to take part in this market because the loans are the first to be paid back and command high interest rates.
(emphasis mine)

This is about as safe as a loan can be. Even if the reorg fails, you are at the head of the line for liquidation, and the interest rates are very good, and people are still unwilling to lend.

Not Enough Bullets, Regulation Edition

Even after the government bailout, AIG is still lobbying to relax regulations on its business:
When the U.S. took control of failing mortgage titans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it prohibited them from lobbying. But it hasn't banned the practice at AIG, a huge insurer that is still 20%-owned by public shareholders.

AIG is currently working to ease some provisions in a new federal law establishing strict oversight of mortgage originators, according to state regulators. The law requires that originators be licensed by the states, and that they supply comprehensive information so state regulators can track their activities.
To quote Bruce Cockburn, "If I had a rocket launcher, some son-of-bitch would die."

This is Why the US-India Nuclear Deal is So Damn Dangerous

China has signed a deal to build two nuke plants for Pakistan.

It was foreseeable and inevitable that once India got its deal from the US, a deal driven by the quest for nuclear power profits, not good policy, that someone could do the same for Pakistan.

We have doubled or tripled the amount of fissile material on both sides of the line of control.

Jury Out on Uncle Ted

Let's be clear about this: the facts as they exist really should be enough to send him down the river for bribery, but it's easier to show that he took, and did not report gifts.

We have disinterested parties like a contractor testifying that Veco specifically told a contractor to avoid sending a 13 grand bill:
Mr. Paone said Mr. Allen told him to "eat" the final bill and suggested that he "should look at it as a political contribution."

Mr. Paone said he never alerted Sen. Stevens to the incident because he was concerned it would be "business suicide" to cross Mr. Allen, who was a powerful businessman in Alaska.


We also have his friend who managed the renovations of his chalet that Stevens never asked for a bill or invoice.

Stevens should not be a particularly sympathetic figure, what with his claiming that if anything was done wrong, it was his wife who screwed up, and his decision, because no lawyer in his right mind would put him up there, which showed, as Dana Milbank says:
Ted Stevens once told his Senate colleagues that he's "a mean, miserable SOB." Yesterday, he set out to prove it.
(See also here, here, here, and here)

Considering the degree to which the reports all agree that he was contemptuous, evasive, and just plain awful as a witness, I have to conclude that his testifying was Stevens' and not his Attorney's idea.

In closing arguments, the prosecutor got to the most damning evidence in the case, the fact that Stevens acknowledged what he was doing could get him into legal trouble.

That pretty much shoots down the argument that it was an "innocent mistake".

Of course, considering how badly the prosecution has handled this, I get the sense that the judge wants to slap them silly for good cause, there are no guarantees,

In any case, the jury is deliberating now.

Weekly Zimbabwe Update

The short version is that everything is screwed up and the deal is collapsing.

There is, however some good news, which is that after Mbeki's latest visit, the SADC has defacto taken him out of the process, because both sides have asked the SADC to intervene directly, as opposed to through Mbeki, in what Tsvangerai calls "Tsvangirai slams Mugabe's dialogue of the deaf."

This really should help things move along, because Mugabe no longer has a biased ally at the negotiating table, though actually holding the meeting may be problematic, because Tsvangerai cannot travel to the meeting until he is
given a passport by the government.

As a result of all this, we have warnings of new sanctions from the US and EU.

Both the MDC and Botswana have made calls for a new election, though one wonders how much of that is gamesmanship at the negotiating table.

Of course, nothing involve Zimbabwe would be complete without some truly bizarre machinations, in this case the accusation by the MDC that the deal that was formally signed was changed from what was negotiated, specifically:
  • an increase to the number of non-constituent senators issued to the Mutambara faction;
  • changes to a clause stating that a replacement for vice prime minister cannot be a non-constituent MP;
  • changes to the agreement that parties would jointly consult each other on the appointment of ambassadors and other key government officials.

I Can Haz Breton Woods

The vid begs to go LolCat LolCat.



Funny.

How I Spent My Summer Vacation

OK, my 6 week stint of unemployment, actually.

More accurately, this is about the fact that I started an old/new job.

I returned to work at a medical device manufacturer after an 11 months away.

I literally went back to my old cube, and my old phone was there, along with notes from when I was last there and my old voice mail was still active, complete with a message from January of this year, though I still had to wait a bit for my computer login to be created.

It says less about the ebb and flow of employment there than it does about the quality of my cube.

There is a big honking column in the middle of it, which makes it less than desirable.

It will be nice not to be working military (too much dealing with Generals complaining about the colors of power point slides) and nuclear power (the more know, the less I like industry. Cleaning up when you are done generating power is too damn expensive).

22 October 2008

Why We Love the Rude Pundit

The Rude Pundit nails it again:
  1. Barack Obama must be an anarcho-syndicalist because he believes in the power of unions.
  2. Barack Obama must be a Whig because he believes in the government's role in building infrastructure and education.
  3. Barack Obama must be a Gaullist because he believes in regulating banks.
  4. Barack Obama must be a neo-Aristotelianist because he was a community organizer.
  5. Barack Obama must be a Dadaist because cow.

Making a Bad Situation Even Worse

It looks like Hank Paulson and his bully boys at the US Treasury will be actively encouraging banks to merge with government money.

So, because some banks have to be bailed out, at taxpayer expense, because they are too big to fail, we should have even more really big banks, because it benefits the guys that Secretary Paulson plays golf with.

Well, it appears that some Senators have not viewed this development positively, and they just sent Paulson a "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot" letter regarding this.

Economics Update

In war, it is said that amateurs talk tactics, while professionals talk logistics.

It may be the case with financial crises too, which makes the
FDIC decision to sign a lease for a lot of office space in Southern California very interesting.

Of course, the tactical developments, like investors taking losses in excess of 90% on complex financial instruments attached to Lehman and Iceland is still interesting, even if just a tactical development.

In currency, the dollar has hit a 2 year high on concerns of a coming recession.

I think that this is temporary. People are fleeing to the dollar in times of trouble out of habit which is not justified by the reality.

In any case, recession fears pushed oil to a 16 month low.


BTW, here is a very nice primer on the financial crisis:

Not Enough Bullets, Bloddy Kraut Edition

Well, the Germans have a bailout plan, one they developed after stiffing the rest of the Euro zone, and now they have been browbeaten into softening pay limitations of their bailout package by bank executives making noises about not accepting state aid.

It was to be a hard pay limit of €500,000 ($666,000), but that was too much for the upper failed management at the failed banks to accept.

Where is my revolver.

Not Enough Bullets, Damn Limey Edition

It appears taht Lloyds Staff 'Will Still Get Bonuses', even after the government injected £5.5 billion into the institution.

Sarah Palin's Clothing Bill, and the Big Picture

While the comment of a Talking Points Memo commenter about Palin and the GOP dropping over $150,000.00 of campaign funds on her cloths and bling is amusing, "If Sarah Palin's $150,000 wardrobe had a life of its own, it would get a tax cut from a President Obama," it misses the big picture.

We have to remember that she also accepted per deim payments intended for away from home expenses for times when she was at home, which should have the IRS coming after her, and her bilking the state out of over $21,000.00 for travel expenses for her children.

This is not about Sarah Palin. It is rather about movement conservatism, of which Sarah Palin is, at least until after election day, a sterling example.

Movement conservatism is by its nature corrupt.

Basically, these people read too much Ayn Rand, or more accurately they took it too seriously, because any amount or Ayn being read is too much.

Because of this these people believe that the government, and government service to be inherently evil, and so they enter into service to do what they believe to be evil.

The only reason for them to enter government service is money and power, and they believe that they are owed these little bits of corruption, whether it be Palin's per deim or Stevens' house renovations, because they are doing something so awful.

Google Maps Now Has a Voting Tool

Here.

You can enter your data below:


I've also placed the tool on the right hand side of the page.

It also provides links to things like absentee and early voting information in the results.

Neat gadget.

Me Bad

I have been talking politics, and have neglected to mention two races in our back yard:
  • Frank Kravotil running for Congress in MD-1
  • Jennifer Dougherty, who is running for Congress in MD-6
Kravotil is running against Fred Flintstone (he is positively antediluvian), Andy Harris, who defeated the moderate (when it didn't count) Republican in the primary, and Dougherty is running against Roscoe Bartlet, who...Well....He lives up to the name "Roscoe".

In any case, they ar both on Matthew Saroff's Act Blue Page.

Show them some love.

Bachmann-Turnoff Overdrive

I make no apologies for the pun.

What's more, I call out all the Liberal Blogosphere....This one was pretty obvious.

Well, Michele Bachmann, the lady who started her political career keeping the Disney Movie Alladin out of town, "feeling that it endorsed magic/witchcraft and promoted paganism" is still experiencing blow-back from her outrageous and un-American outburst on Chris Matthews' show, where she accused most of the country of being "anti-American"

It now appears that her primary opponent, Aubrey Immelman, will run a write-in campaign against her, because, as he states, "We cannot tolerate this festering brand of neo-McCarthyism in our midst."

Good for him, and bad for her. She has now generated something north of $700K in donations for Elwyn Tinklenberg, her Democratic Opponent, who has a real chance of pulling this out now, particularly now that the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) has stopped funding their ads for her.

Bummer of a birth mark, Miche.

*I know that it's not nice to make fun of someone's name, but his name still sounds like a character from Garrison Keillor's fictional Lake Wobegone.

21 October 2008

Depressingly Sober

Yesterday was Shmini Atseret. Tonight is Simchat Torah, which, along with starting a new job, has had me offline for the past few days.

We are going to a family friendly Simchat Torah celebration....No booze.....So I'm sober, and wishing that I wasn't.

Oh well, in the morning, I'll be sober either way.

19 October 2008

Obama: Good News and Bad News

The good news ia that he raised more than $150,000,000.00 in September, and so is spending John Sidney McCain III into a well deserved oblivion.

The bad news is Colin Powell endorsing him....His last endorsement was for invading Iraq.

Burn, Baby, Burn!

It appears that prosecutors are looking at senior Lehman executivesincluding former CEO Richard Fuld.

Standard concerns, fraud, misleading statements, possible obstruction of justice, etc.

I'm hoping for some jail time.

Overheard at the Barber's

They had a sports program on, with sports talking heads.

Bill Cowher was talking about the Pats-Broncos game @ Foxboro.

He called it for the Patriots, noting Matt Cassel's performance at home, and the fact that Denver is 33rd in the league against the pass.

Then,he dropped this bon mot, "Joe the Plumber could throw for 200 yards against Denver."

It appears that Joe the Plumber haa become a synonym for "lame" in just a few short days..

heh

A Handy List of Federal Reserve Measures Taken Since August 2007

And it's a rather long list.

The Fed is done here...their quiver is empty.

Is This a Bailout, or a Fix for a Junkie?

James Saft notes that what we are seeing, "The market's reaction to the new superbailout follows a familiar pattern: relief, disappointment and the need for a higher dose of the same medicine, is distressingly similar to the behavior of an addict.

I agree....I think we should start arresting and imprisoning bank executives, like we do junkies.

In any case, it's a good read.

Stop Jenny McCarthy

There is a website about Jenny McCarthy, and the lies that she spreads regarding conditions on the Autism spectrum.

I have a child on the Autism Spectrum (Aspergers), and my wife noted signs at birth, and had specific concerns about a condition on the spectrum before he turned 3, but my anecdote is no more valid than McCarthy's where she claims that vaccines cause autism, and that her son "recovered".

Neither happen in Autism. The data is clear: there is no correlation between Autism Spectrum disorders and vaccines.

While correlation does not prove causation, lack of correlation does prove lack of causation, and this has been proved dozens of times.

As to "curing" people on the spectrum, you can't, as is the case with children "recovering" from Autism. They aren't broken, they are different, and so they need to learn how to bridge the gap with the rest of the world.

Rats are Leaving a Sinking Ship

By rat, I mean Peggy Noonan, and by sinking Ship, I mean McCain/Palin.

Her latest piece in the WSJ cuts Sarah Palin a new one.

Of course, 6 weeks ago, she said the same damn thing on an open mic by mistake, but now she puts it in the Journal.

Her article is not about the Sarah Palin, or the election, or conservative philosophy, it is about Peggy Noonan, and an attempt to have plausible dependability about what she sees as a coming electoral drubbing.

Israeli Defense Forces Developed Remote Controlled Sniper Rifle

The system is called Tanin (Alligator) and it mounts a .50 cal Barrett sniper rifle.

This system is undoubtedly not cheap, but the risk of losing a rifle and mount is less than that of losing a sniper, who are highly trained and rare commodities.

I wonder if we will see this in use in the near future.

My hunch is that it will be used often...it's the middle east.

Pakistani Navy Looking at Deploying Nukes

This is just lovely, yet another way that India and Pakistan can destroy us all.

Navy Looks More Seriously at Adding Bang to UAVs

Or at least, they are generating PowerPoint slides with weapons loadouts:


NASA Sending Nuclear Rover to Mars

This worries me, I think that Martians might interpret this as a belligerent act. <\sarcasm>

On the other hand, this bit of video pr0n of the system in action mars is amusing:



I will note that the deployment system seems byzantinely complex, and hence subject to failure at multiple points.

Does the Navy Have a Clue as to What the Frack It's Doint?

The Navy just canceled a 3rd Littoral Combat Ship in order to pay for cost overruns on the existing systems.

Seriously, our defense procurement system is completely broken.

I remember when John Lehman was shooting for a 600 ship navy, and now it looks like we may end up with a 60 ship navy.

Dragon Skin and Its Successors

I haven't followed the entire body armor controversy particularly closely.

My interest there has primarily been the allegations of corruption and war profiteering, but I know that this is a subject that tends to get people screaming at each other, with the word "conspiracy" being thrown around.

So the army's decision to postpone tests on flexible armor will doubtless raise some hackles.

It may be that the army saw some new technology coming down the pipe, as we also have a press release from Allan Bain, one of the creators of scale armor,* regarding a new technology to forge the plates that will result in improved performance

Evolution Armor Systems calls it "Skaalar Exoskin Gen 4+".

*Truth be told, the technology is thousands of years old, so we are talking about the recreators of scale armor.

MDA to See Budget Cuts

It looks like the missile defense agency will see at least $1 billion cut from the budget request for the next fiscal year.

The source for the $1b figure is a staffer on the Senate Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee who is a friend of 'Star Wars'. There are indications that the Congress may go for even bigger cuts.

18 October 2008

It Was Only a Matter of Time

As the Minnesota Independent so eloquently stated, "putting Bachmann in front of a live microphone is like handing an excitable 15-year-old a bottle of gin and a loaded gun. The only question is when something unspeakable is going to happen."

Heh....In any case, if you've followed her career, and things like accusations of attempted lesbian kidnapping, secret plans to give Iraq to Iran, and lord know what else that I've missed, we now see this missive:
On Friday, Bachmann, R-Minn., told MSNBC talk show host Chris Matthews she thought Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and his wife Michelle “may have anti-American views” and said the media should investigate whether members of Congress are “pro-America or anti-America.”
Seriously, this woman is flat out nuts, and within 24 hours of her latest deranged outburst, her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg* got more than $450,000.00 in campaign contributions in the next 24 hours.

Heh.

*I know that it's not nice to make fun of someone's name, but he sounds like a character from Garrison Keillor's fictional Lake Wobegone.