Of Course He Did

Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Trump's peace plan for Gaza because even the illusion of peace will result in his losing power and going to jail for corruption.

It's really that simple. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected US President Donald Trump's 15-point plan for Gaza, stating that no military pull-out will happen until Hamas is "genuinely" disarmed.

Trump's Board of Peace said last month it had reached an agreement for the "complete disarmament" of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza.

But Hamas said handing over its heavy weapons was contingent on Israel ending "all forms of aggression" and withdrawing its forces from Gaza.

On Sunday, a senior Board of Peace official insisted the US-backed peace plan for the territory remained the only way forward.

Israel has continued to carry out strikes on Gaza since agreeing to an initial ceasefire in the territory last October.

"Israel rejects the 15-point document," Netanyahu said at a cabinet meeting on Sunday.

This is what happens when a leader is convinced that a loss of power will result in their incarceration.

This applies to Donald Trump as well. 

Yeah, War is Bad, But

Sometimes it's tough to feel that way, particularly when things like an Iranian drone strike did significant damage to an Amazon Central Data Bahrain.

Not a fan or theocracies, but I am even less of a fan of kleptocratic monopolists like Amazon.

Iranian forces destroyed Amazon’s central data infrastructure in Bahrain, according to state-aligned media reports.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have targeted and destroyed the American tech giant’s infrastructure with cruise missiles in response to an American attack that allegedly destroyed an under-construction nuclear site in Southern Iran on Monday, according to reports from Iran’s Fars News Agency. Amazon has not yet confirmed damage to its infrastructure in the region, though Bahraini authorities have acknowledged that air raid sirens were activated on Tuesday and said they intercepted a wave of Iranian strikes, though officials have not reported what, if any, material damage was sustained at this time.

You know, Bezos also has a yacht. According to this website, it was just north of Vanatu 5 days ago.

Drawing to an Inside Strait

The Bab Al-Mandeb Strait It appears that Iran is now openly coordinating with the Houthis in Yemen in closing off the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, which is the path to and from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

This was also foreseeable before the shooting started.

An Iranian official threatened the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway dividing Yemen from Africa and providing a critical trading route from the Red Sea, if the U.S. “dares to repeat its foolish mistakes,” threatening further disruptions to global trade. 

Key Facts

• In an English language post on X, Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said the U.S. opposition “views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz”—the key oil-transport route Iran has effectively closed to maritime traffic as the war with the U.S. and Israel drags on.
• Although Iran does not border the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, Yemen does, and Iran is closely allied with the Houthis, the Yemeni militant group that previously conducted dozens of strikes against Israel-linked vessels in the Red Sea in 2023 and 2024 in response to the war in Gaza.
• The Houthis began launching missiles at military targets in Israel in late March.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused global oil prices to skyrocket and has pushed average gasoline prices in the U.S. above $4 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data.
• The statement came hours after President Donald Trump again threatened Iran’s power plants and bridges over Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The willingness of the Houthis to support Iran in this war is not a surprise.  They have been close allies for decades, and Iran has shown repeatedly that they can be trusted by them.

In contrast, the United States has not been a trustworthy ally for decades, which is why our Nato allies are profoundly disinterested in forcing the Strait of Hormuz.

Headline of the Day

Please Stop Mailing Butt Plugs to Bahrain

—Boing Boing describing how the US military wants a sex toy firm to stop accepting orders from soldiers who are deployed to the Persian Gulf island nation.

I don't have anything to add to this. 

We regret to inform you that you must no longer ship sex toys to Bahrain, the decidedly conservative island kingdom off the coast of Saudi Arabia. Thousands of U.S. service members stationed at the base there will have to go without or find a local source. The sad news comes from Grace Bennett, proprietor of Canadian sexual wellness shop Bonjibon. She has framed the letter she received from the U.S. Department of Defense asking her to cease and decist.

"Framing the angry letter the American Department of Defense sent my spicy Canadian toy business on behalf of the Kingdom of Bahrain tell me to STOP mailing 🍑🍑🍑 plugs to their American soldiers," she wrote, adding "their soldiers are the ones who ordered them in the first place!"

No really.  I have nothing to add to this.

The opportunity for humorous quips is so limitless as to be paralyzing.

And It's Off Again

5 days ago, I suggested that Netanyahu would do something to destroy the cease fire. 

It appears that I was wrong only with regard to the timing.

Israel on Sunday launched its heaviest wave of attacks on Gaza since a fragile cease-fire took hold a week ago and said it had temporarily suspended humanitarian aid after accusing Hamas of violating the truce by firing on its soldiers, killing two.

After nightfall, the Israeli military said in a statement that it had “begun the renewed enforcement of the cease-fire” after carrying out a series of significant strikes against Hamas targets and in accordance with a directive from the government.

The deadly flare-up of violence on Sunday and the temporary suspension of aid were the most serious tests yet of the cease-fire, which was negotiated under heavy pressure by the Trump administration and signed with great fanfare by President Trump himself.

You can never be too pessimistic or too cynical about events in the Middle East.

Better Than the Alternative

I was overly pessimistic, it seems.

Israel and Hamas exchanged prisoners/hostages today, so all of the living Israelis held by Hamas, and a large portion of the Palestinians held by Israel, went home.

I expected Netanyahu to do something to queer the deal, but I am pleasantly surprised to be wrong. 

Not Buying It

I do not believe that there is anything resembling a deal to end the Gaza War. 

Hamas promises to rel;ease all of the hostages, including the dead ones, and Netanyahu promises to stop bombing, "real soon."

This is not going to happen.  Hamas will not assent to being disarmed, which is a part of the proposal, and Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) will never end the war, because it would mean that he would be turfed out of office and thrown in jail for corruption.  (He is guilty as hell)

I do not share the optimism of a n OP/ED writer at Haaretx, "How Trump Humiliated Netanyahu, Rewarded Qatar and Quashed the Messianic Right's Fantasies." 

The war should end.

The war must end.

Unfortunately the two entities who have the most effect on this, Benjaman Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) and Hamas see no benefit in ending the war.

Color me a pessimist. 

How About a Vacation in Iraq?

They have restored the ancient city of Babylon.

Now that's a good way to get your archeology freak on.

Mentioned in the sacred texts of all three Abrahamic faiths, the ancient Mesopotamian city of Babylon, in modern-day Iraq, is today undergoing a revival. Two World Monuments Fund (WMF) projects are nearing completion and much-needed cultural tourism is returning.

One project mitigates groundwater damage to the north retaining wall of the Ishtar Gate. The second is a restoration of the Temple of Ninmakh, dedicated to the Sumerian mother goddess. The team hopes there will be an official reopening for the temple this autumn, after which it will be available for gatherings such as weddings and concerts, as well as for the Babylon Festival, a celebration of international cultures that takes place every spring.

Largely funded by the US embassy in Baghdad, the restoration of the temple and the north retaining wall are part of the Future of Babylon Project, initiated 15 years ago, which aims to document, waterproof and stabilise structures throughout the 2,500-acre site. (The US embassy cancelled funding for a planned walkway spanning the site of the Ishtar Gate in July due to budget cuts.)

So Much for Wunderwaffen Status

It's not a good look for the F-35 that it had to engage in maneuvers to evade a Houthi surface to air missile in Yemen.

Needless to say, this is not the sort of sophisticated integrated air defense system that the aircraft is supposed to defeat.

A U.S. F-35 stealth fighter had to take evasive maneuvers to avoid being hit by Houthi surface-to-air (SAM) missiles, a U.S. official told The War Zone.

“They got close enough that the [F-35] had to maneuver,” the official said.

You can also read more about the Houthis’ air defense capabilities in our deep dive here.

The comments partially confirm earlier reporting by The New York Times about what transpired during the U.S. campaign against the Houthis, known as Operation Rough Rider, that was launched March 15.

“In those first 30 days, the Houthis shot down seven American MQ-9 drones (around $30 million each), hampering Central Command’s ability to track and strike the militant group,” the publication reported on Monday. “Several American F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses, making real the possibility of American casualties, multiple U.S. officials said.”

 I'm sure that Lockheed-Martin will be willing to sell an upgrade to fix this.

Here Are the Attack Plans That Trump’s Advisers Shared on Signal - The Atlantic

If your f%$# up can be best described by a Muppet meme, you have failed completely

So now the good folks at The Atlantic, after having been assured that the discussions on Signal were totally non classified, have released the messages that were inadvertently sent to Jeffrey Goldberg.

Can you say sh%$ show?

Good, I knew you could. (Yeah, I know invoking Mr. Rogers and the Muppets.  PBS is way more powerful than I had previously thought)

So, about that Signal chat.

On Monday, shortly after we published a story about a massive Trump-administration security breach, a reporter asked the secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, why he had shared plans about a forthcoming attack on Yemen on the Signal messaging app. He answered, “Nobody was texting war plans. And that’s all I have to say about that.”

At a Senate hearing yesterday, the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, John Ratcliffe, were both asked about the Signal chat, to which Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor in chief of The Atlantic, was inadvertently invited by National Security Adviser Michael Waltz. “There was no classified material that was shared in that Signal group,” Gabbard told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Ratcliffe said much the same: “My communications, to be clear, in the Signal message group were entirely permissible and lawful and did not include classified information.”

President Donald Trump, asked yesterday afternoon about the same matter, said, “It wasn’t classified information.”

Well, that's a relief for Mr. Goldberg.  It means that his story did not reveal any secrets, and it also means that further releases will not reveal any secrets.

So Goldberg and his posse are releasing the whole megillah.

Much hilarity ensues:

………

Experts have repeatedly told us that use of a Signal chat for such sensitive discussions poses a threat to national security. As a case in point, Goldberg received information on the attacks two hours before the scheduled start of the bombing of Houthi positions. If this information—particularly the exact times American aircraft were taking off for Yemen—had fallen into the wrong hands in that crucial two-hour period, American pilots and other American personnel could have been exposed to even greater danger than they ordinarily would face. The Trump administration is arguing that the military information contained in these texts was not classified—as it typically would be—although the president has not explained how he reached this conclusion.

Yesterday, we asked officials across the Trump administration if they objected to us publishing the full texts. In emails to the Central Intelligence Agency, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the National Security Council, the Department of Defense, and the White House, we wrote, in part: “In light of statements today from multiple administration officials, including before the Senate Intelligence Committee, that the information in the Signal chain about the Houthi strike is not classified, and that it does not contain ‘war plans,’ The Atlantic is considering publishing the entirety of the Signal chain.”

………

As we wrote on Monday, much of the conversation in the “Houthi PC small group” concerned the timing and rationale of attacks on the Houthis, and contained remarks by Trump-administration officials about the alleged shortcomings of America’s European allies. But on the day of the attack—Saturday, March 15—the discussion veered toward the operational.

At 11:44 a.m. eastern time, Hegseth posted in the chat, in all caps, “TEAM UPDATE:”

The text beneath this began, “TIME NOW (1144et): Weather is FAVORABLE. Just CONFIRMED w/CENTCOM we are a GO for mission launch.” Centcom, or Central Command, is the military’s combatant command for the Middle East. The Hegseth text continues:

• “1215et: F-18s LAUNCH (1st strike package)”
• “1345: ‘Trigger Based’ F-18 1st Strike Window Starts (Target Terrorist is @ his Known Location so SHOULD BE ON TIME – also, Strike Drones Launch (MQ-9s)”

Let us pause here for a moment to underscore a point. This Signal message shows that the U.S. secretary of defense texted a group that included a phone number unknown to him—Goldberg’s cellphone—at 11:44 a.m. This was 31 minutes before the first U.S. warplanes launched, and two hours and one minute before the beginning of a period in which a primary target, the Houthi “Target Terrorist,” was expected to be killed by these American aircraft. If this text had been received by someone hostile to American interests—or someone merely indiscreet, and with access to social media—the Houthis would have had time to prepare for what was meant to be a surprise attack on their strongholds. The consequences for American pilots could have been catastrophic.

Yeah, nothing in the least sensitive here.

You can read the rest. at the link.  It's pretty clear that these folks have no f%$#ing clue.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

There is Trump Crazy, and there is Apartheid Era Emerald Heir Pedo Guy™ crazy, and then there is
proposing the mass expulsion of the Palestinian residents of Gaza to make way for a beach resort development owned by the United States crazy.

This is King Canute ordering the tide to recede* crazy.

I'm thinking that this might be tertiary syphilis.†

Donald Trump’s proposal for a US takeover of Gaza was met with anger and blunt rejection from regional allies, delight from Israel’s far right and a warning against “ethnic cleansing” from the head of the UN.

The secretary general, António Guterres, planned to tell a UN meeting on Wednesday that “it is essential to avoid any form of ethnic cleansing” after the US president said he wanted to “own” Gaza and resettle its Palestinian residents elsewhere.


An unusually broad wave of international outrage and condemnation followed Trump’s shock announcement after a meeting with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

Germany warned that the plan violated international law and Brazil’s president described it as “incomprehensible”, with China stating it opposed “forced transfer”.

………

Both regional critics and supporters recognised that Trump’s vision for a “Riviera for the Middle East” was novel only in seeking to insert the US directly into the heart of one of the most volatile, long-running conflicts in the world.

It is premised on emptying Gaza of its residents, effectively a call for ethnic cleansing, and follows decades of debates in the Israeli right over whether Palestinians can be forced from the territory or encouraged to leave with economic incentives.


Trump wants neighbouring countries that are heavily dependent on US aid and military support, including Egypt and Jordan, to offer new homes to large numbers of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents.

I assume that he wants the resorts to be operated by the Trump Org.

This is completely insane.

^*Canute did issue such an order, but it a way to rebuke cortiers who were to adulatory of him. He was showing them that his power was not absolute.

^†No, I don't believe this.  I am not suggesting that I actually see any signs of syphilis. I'm an engineer, not a doctor, dammit. This is sarcasm for effect

Thoughts on Syria

I don't have much in the way of insights beyond the obvious, that frozen conflicts are a recipe for disaster.

In the short term, and by that I mean in the next 6 months, I would expect to see significant refugee flows (from the mid 5 figures to the low 6 figures) from the Syrian Alewite community, which numbers about 2½ million in Syria.

They, specifically the Assad family, have been in charge of Syria for over 50 years, and the new government will be dominated by Salafi Jihadists, and as such, they consider Shiah and Alewite religions to be apostasy.

Also, there are 50 years of scores to settle, which may push migration even higher.

I Do Not Expect This to Last

If you can keep itThe announcement of a ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel is better than there being no deal, but given that the Lebanese Army and the UN peacekeepers are the guarantors of this deal.

When juxtaposed with Benjamin Netanyahu's incentives, continued war = continued power = him not going to jail, I am not optimistic about the long term prospects:

A cease-fire meant to end the deadliest war in decades between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah officially took effect early Wednesday, less than a day after President Biden announced the deal and Israel approved its terms.

Thousands of Lebanese began to return to their homes in the first hours of the cease-fire. The fighting has killed thousands in Lebanon and around 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers. The conflict has also displaced about one million people in Lebanon, in addition to doing vast physical damage there, and about 60,000 people in Israel.

Lebanon’s government agreed on Wednesday morning to the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu endorsed it on Tuesday night and argued that a truce would allow Israel to rebuild its weapon stockpiles while it works to isolate Hamas, the Hezbollah ally that Israel is fighting in Gaza.

………

Under the terms of the deal, a U.N. peacekeeping force, along with the Lebanese Army, will keep the peace in the border zone, as envisioned in a 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution that ended the previous Israel-Hezbollah war but that was never fully carried out. 

………

The failure of the 2006 agreement, known as Resolution 1701, is hanging over the new one. Like the current cease-fire, 1701 relied on the Lebanese Army, which has not been in a position to control Hezbollah, and on U.N. peacekeepers, who have not been empowered to confront Hezbollah militarily.

Yeah, I'll take the "under" on how long this will last.

My Initial Reaction Was Less than Somber

All you need to know about him in one picture
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in a firefight in Gaza.

Rather refreshingly, this did not involve dropping a large bomb in an area largely populated by non-combatants.  

It also appears that this was happenstance, and not an intelligence coup.

Hopefully, this will lead to an end of hostilities:

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed early Thursday in the Gaza Strip, the IDF confirmed. Hamas sources told Reuters that there are indications that suggest that Sinwar had been killed in an Israeli operation in Gaza. The IDF added that there were no signs of the presence of hostages in the area in which Sinwar was killed.

A DNA sample from the body was sent to the Institute of Forensic Medicine, and dental images were sent to the police's forensic science unit. The DNA sample was compared to a sample from Sinwar collected when he was in Israeli prison. The military and the Shin Bet security service said that there have been dozens of operations over the past year and the past few weeks in the area where Sinwar was killed, which "limited Yahya Sinwar's ability to act... and led to his elimination."

Money, identification documents and combat equipment were found on the bodies of the terrorists. The troops that encountered the terrorists were not in the area for a targeted killing operation and did not have prior intelligence that Sinwar was present there.

The soldiers that killed the three are in training to be squad commanders, and are not part of a commando unit. It was operating in the area to locate Hamas members. Before dawn on Thursday, the troops began to suspect that there were Hamas members in the building and opened fire, including the use of tank shells and shoulder-fired missiles. Troops subsequently used drones to examine the building and located the bodies. Explosive devices had been planted in the building. Combat engineers were deployed to the site and neutralized them.

So it appears that his killing was just luck, though as Branch Ricky noted, (He might have been quoting John Milton) "Luck is a residue of design."

The world is a better place without him.  When he was jailed by the Israelis, it was for torturing and murdering Palestinians.

He was a particularly nasty piece of work, even by the standards of the region.

One hopes that this will provide an opportunity for the fighting to end, but I do not think that this is the case, and I lay that on the door step of Benjamin Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו), who will do anything to stay in power and out of jail, including prolonging the carnage.

………

Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, reacted to the news by addressing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying, "You got your image of victory. Now reach a deal." She added that "now, more than ever, the lives of my son Matan and the other hostages are in concrete danger... Netanyahu, [Defense Minister Yoav] Gallant, and the chief of staff have already said themselves that Hamas has been defeated militarily. A year after the failure [on October 7], this is the time to leverage the accomplishments and use [Sinwar's] elimination to take a diplomatic step that will bring our loved ones back home."

She added, "If Netanyahu does not take advantage of the momentum and does not stand up now and take a new Israeli initiative, even at the cost of ending the war, it means that he has decided to abandon my Matan and the other hostages, with the aim of prolonging the war and entrenching his rule."

Netanyahu is a greater threat to the state of Israel than Sinwar ever was.

Walkie Talkies Now?

Yesterday, it was pagers, todays, it's Walkie-Talkies detonating.

 As Anna Russel would say, "I'm not making this up, you know."

I hate reruns:

Hezbollah was hit Wednesday by another wave of exploding devices, as Israel signaled it was moving toward more aggressive military action against the Lebanese militant group.

Walkie-talkies used by the group blew up in homes, cars and in operatives’ hands across the country, people familiar with the matter said, just a day after thousands of pagers carried by Hezbollah members exploded at roughly the same time. The new attack killed 20 people and injured more than 450, after Tuesday’s bombings killed 12 and injured more than 2,800 people, according to Lebanon’s government, which blamed Israel.

The militant group was scrambling to assess the extent of the two days of explosions. Details emerging from investigations into Tuesday’s massive attack pointed to a complex plan carried out by Israel, in which explosives were planted in thousands of devices destined for Hezbollah members and then detonated by a remote signal.

………

Wednesday’s blasts widened the scale of an already unprecedented attack. Israel has faced criticism for triggering a wave of untargeted explosions that put civilians at risk. Tuesday’s attack filled many hospital emergency rooms to capacity and left two children among the dead.

Hezbollah members said some explosions on Wednesday were stronger than those in the pager attack, which left victims with severed hands, damaged eyes or gashes in their hips and sides.

………

Senior officials from the militant group ordered an immediate, broad investigation to identify how the attack happened and understand its implications. Hezbollah was also looking at the possibility of insider collaborators who might have leaked information about the procurement of the pagers.

It was the General Secretary of Hamas, Hassan Nasrallah, who publicly announced this earlier this year.

Solved it for you.

One major concern for Hezbollah is that the attack has exposed the identities of many of their operatives and commanders. The group has been struggling with information leaks and informants on the ground, a security gap that has helped Israel kill hundreds of Hezbollah militants since exchanges of fire began last October.

I am worried about the conflict across Israel's northern border further escalating.

That being said, the fact that Hezbollah's operations and communications have been profoundly and deeply and disrupted does not worry me at all.

Smart Move

Officials in Tehran have announced that they may forgo retaliation against Israel for their assassination of  Ismail Haniyeh if a ceasefire is negotiated in Gaza.

Say what you will about the Iranian government, but even if they have no intent to deliver on their promise, but this is a pretty savvy move.

It makes them, you know, the folks who announced a death sentence for a pretentious writer for alleged heresy, seem like the sensible people in the room.

They aren't the sensible people of course, except perhaps by the standards of the Middle East:

An Iranian attack on Israel could be delayed amid hoped-for negotiations later this week for a hostage release and ceasefire deal in Gaza, three Iranian officials said on Tuesday, indicating that a successful deal could hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for alleged assassinating Hamas terror chief Ismail Haniyeh on its soil.

Iran has vowed to retaliate harshly for Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement.

Yeah, right, Israel did not assassinate Hayinyeh, Trump Didn't sexually assault E. Jean Carrol, JD Vance isn't even skeevier than Mitch McConnell, Elon Musk is Sane, and Randall "Duke" Cunningham never took bribes..

Just Great

Map of the Region

There has been a missile strike in the Golan Heights killing 12 children playing football (Soccer) in the town of Majdal Shams.

Israel has accused Hamas of launching the rocket, allegedly an Iranian built Falaq 1 unguided artillery rocket, that caused the deaths, and Hamas has denied any involvement in the strike. 

The Falaq 1 is basically an Iranian version of the Soviet BM-24 rocket, a successor to the WWII era Katyusha rocket, first produced in 1947, with a range of about 10km.

As can be seen from the map, this rocket could reach Majdal Shams from either Lebanon or Syria.  (Crowded neighborhood)

Hezbollah could have launched the rocket and missed their intended target, or someone else could have launched the rocket, which is rather simple to operate, just set azimuth and elevation, and then shoot.

While I think that it is unlikely that Hamas would deliberately strike Majdal Shams, it is overwhelmingly Druze, and doing so would cause trouble with Lebanese Druze, who constitute about 5% of Lebanon's population.

If someone deliberately targeted the town, my money would be groups affiliated with, or derived from, either Daesh or al Qaeda, as both groups have exhibited extreme hostility towards non-Sunni Muslim communities.

I don't know what is going to happen as a result, but I am pretty certain that it will not be good.

This is Called a Loss

After more than a decade of supporting Riyadh's brutal war against them, including a blockade, the US is now talking about revoking their terrorist designation in exchange for an end to their drone attacks in the Red Sea.

This is a tacit admission of defeat by the US foreign policy Blob.

The US said it would consider revoking its recent designation of Yemen’s Houthis as terrorists if the Iran-backed militants cease their shipping attacks in and around the Red Sea.

“My hope is that we can find diplomatic off-ramps,” Tim Lenderking, President Joe Biden’s special envoy for Yemen, told reporters in an online press briefing on Wednesday. “To find ways to deescalate and allow us to pull back, eventually, the designation and of course to end the military strikes on Houthis’ military capability.”

The comments suggest Washington is once more leaning on diplomacy after a nearly three-month-long campaign of airstrikes against Houthi facilities in Yemen. Those have failed to stop the group’s missile and drone attacks against merchant vessels and warships, though the US says it has managed to degrade the Houthis’ military capabilities.

If a deal is hammered out, it will be interesting to see what the terms are, and how long it lasts before the US or the Houthis break the deal.

Because You Do Not Stop Your Enemy from Stepping on His Own Penis?

Over at the New York Times, Isaac Kardon and Jennifer Kavanagh, ostensibly experts in Chinese maritime power and foreign relations respectively, are wringing their hands because the People's Republic of China has not offered military aid to the US mission attempting to protect shipping in the Red Sea.

There has been plenty of hand-wringing in the West about the prospect of China displacing — or at least rivaling — the United States as the world’s leading superpower. But the evolving security crisis in the Red Sea makes clear that this remains a distant prospect.

China, with a trade-led economy dependent on the free flow of commerce through chokepoints like the Bab el-Mandeb strait off Yemen, relies on the United States to protect international sea lanes. The U.S.-led military response to the Houthi militia attacks on international shipping may not ultimately be the answer to the current crisis — the Houthis, so far, appear undeterred — but the United States has at least demonstrated a clear commitment to keeping open vital trade routes that connect China to the Middle East and Europe.

Rather than acting like the global leader it purports to be, China has made no appreciable move to shoulder the costs or risks of ensuring security in the Red Sea, despite having its sole declared overseas military base in Djibouti, adjacent to the strait. Nor has it publicly offered a viable alternative to America’s actions. Instead, it seems content to largely sit back and offer veiled criticism of the U.S. military response.

The idea that China should blithely support the United States when it is already in a major (thankfully non-military) conflict with the United States, is absurd.

The authors assert that China has an obligation to support the international community, (Defined as supporting the interests of the United States) the  global consensus, (Defined as supporting the interests of the United States) and the rules based order, (Defined as supporting the interests of the United States) and its own interest in being a global leader (Defined as supporting the interests of the United States).

To quote Emilio Estevez in Repo Man, "F%$# that."

Geography is Hard!

18 km from Al Tanf to the BorderIn yet another example of things going pear shaped in the Middle East, 3 US soldiers were killed in an attack on a facility in ……… Jordan?? Syria?? ……… There does not seem to be a consensus between Amman and Washington on this.

The US maintains a base in Syria at Al Tanf, and the attack was either on that base, or at a facility called Tower 22, described as being some 20 km from Al Tanf, which would place it at most 2½ km (less than a mile) inside Jordan.

The US maintains that the attack was in Jordan, and Jordan maintains that the attack was in Syria, and margin for error here is such that Tiger Woods could probably hit a golf ball further than this distance.

If the strike was on personnel in Syria, who are inside the country without the invitation of any entity claiming to be the government of Syria, the attack is justifiable under international law pertaining to conflict.

If this strike was on personnel in Jordan, then a cross border raid of this sort is of dubious legality under international law, though common among militaries that play under USA rules of combat going at least as far back as Cambodia.

Three US troops have been killed and dozens injured in a drone attack on a US base near Jordan's border with Syria.

US President Joe Biden said the attack was carried out by "radical Iran-backed militant groups". He added: "We shall respond."

Iran has denied any involvement in the attack.

It is the first time that a strike has killed US troops in the region since Hamas's 7 October attack on Israel.

Jordan says the attack took place in Syria, not inside Jordan.

It should be noted that where the US troops were will have zero impact on the domestic US politics of this matter.  The usual suspects will be calling for an escalation, and we will get an escalation.

The proximate cause for boots on the ground in Syria was the presence of Daesh (ISIS), and with that group broken as an organized military and organized government, the only reason to keep troops in Syria is to keep troops in Syria.

This is a mess decades in the making.