It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Initial claims and firing


Continuing claims and hiring


InflationInitial unemployment claims were basically flat, up 2,000 to 230,000, which is basically statistical noise.

The same can be said for continuing claims, which rose by 5,000 to 1.850 million.

We also got the producer price index numbers, and it was 1.7% year over year, which is pretty good:

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased marginally last week, suggesting that layoffs remained low even as the labor market is slowing.

Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed producer prices rising slightly more than expected in August amid a rebound in the cost of services. The combination of a fairly stable labor market and still-high inflation further diminished the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points next Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank is expected to start its long-awaited easing cycle.

The reports followed data this month showing the unemployment rate retreated in August from a near three-year high touched in July and underlying inflation indicating some stickiness last month. Financial markets have slashed the odds of a half-point rate reduction to less than 15%.

I still think that we are in the midst of a downturn, and I still think that the Fed will only cut rates by ¼%, but opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.