It's Thursday, So

We have a twofer tonight, both the unemployment numbers and the October inflation numbers came out.

Initial unemployment claims rose by 7000 to 225,000, so still low, but a noticeable bump:

U.S. worker filings for unemployment benefits rose last week but remained near historically low levels, in a sign many employers continue to hold on to their employees.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, increased by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. That is close to the prepandemic 2019 weekly average of 218,000, when the labor market was also strong.

Claims remain low despite some recent corporate layoff and hiring-freeze announcements, particularly in the technology sector. Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. said this week it would cut more than 11,000 workers, or 13% of staff, in a signal of the increasing competitive and regulatory challenges facing Meta. Business-software company Salesforce Inc. also started laying off employees this week.

I will note that what is going on tech right now, particularly with regard to Web3/Crypto seems to rhyme with the collapse of the dotcoms in the early oughts.

Job growth was down, but at 261,000 remained well above what is needed to keep up with natural workforce growth, about 160,000.

Meanwhile,  inflation in October came in significantly below estimates, 7.7% overall and a core rate of inflation of 6.3%.

I still think that the Fed will raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points (½%), which I think is premature, particularly since the 12 month rate is a lagging indicator because the earlier inflation continues to influence the rate.

This does not matter to the Federal Reserve though, they are incentivized to cause a recession, because this is perceived as judicious and serious.

Bombs away.