17 November 2025

We Are Unbelievably Screwed


BTW, IG Stands for "Investment Grade"


Nope, no bubble here

It is beginning to look a lot like large language model artificial intelligence will be this generation's subprime mortgage backed securities. 

With even the Wall Street Journal describing the current borrowing to build AI infrastructure as a frenzy, it seems that we are overdue for a rather profound reckoning.

This bubble is if anything worse than the real estate bubble, because they are investing in a rapidly depreciating asset.

If you spend a billion dollars on Nvidia chips, in 5 years those chips will be worth less than 5% of that. (Probably much less)

People are literally burning money to purchase burning infrastructure. 

Not long ago, Blue Owl Capital was an upstart investment firm that lent money to midsize U.S. companies such as Sara Lee Frozen Bakery.

These days, the firm is financing massive data centers costing tens of billions of dollars for the likes of Meta and Oracle—a sign of just how quickly Wall Street has become the enabler of America’s artificial-intelligence boom.

Fund managers such as Blue Owl amassed trillions of dollars of investing firepower and have been hunting for big deals where they can put that money to work. They found slim pickings for years until a perfect match appeared in AI, which has provided a bigger target than anything in history due to the vast sums tech companies need to ramp up computing power.

And here comes the money quote:

………

Last week’s selloff in tech-related stocks and bonds marked some of the most serious warning signs that the frenzy could be overdone. But any worries on Wall Street about a possible investment bubble have largely been trumped by the fear of being left behind.

Speaking of scary quotes:

………

Then, last month, Blue Owl raised about $30 billion to build an AI data center for Meta in Louisiana, putting in $3 billion of its clients’ money and borrowing the rest. The deal included a provision, considered extraordinary on Wall Street, giving Blue Owl’s equity investment a debtlike guarantee in case the partnership falls apart—showing the new financial wizardry bankers are conjuring to meet AI’s ravenous financial demand.

 (all emphasis mine)

We are so going to be bailing out these morons in a few years. 

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