Specifically, Arnaud Bertrand is suggersting that China has been slow walking negotiations until they haD developed alternatives to items that were only available in the United States, particularly helium.
Here's a question I know many are wondering about: why did China wait until now to use rare earths as leverage against the US? Why not in the first Trump administration when the US started the trade hostilities? Or when the Biden administration unleashed the chips export controls 3 years ago?
I just watched a fascinating explanation by a Chinese analyst and, unexpectedly, a big part of the explanation is... helium.
I had no idea but as he explains (source here), all the way until 2022 China imported 95% of its helium and most of it was controlled by the US. Of the world's ten largest helium producers, four were American companies, and the remaining six all used American technology.
Helium isn't just a party balloons gas: it has plenty of industrial applications for things such as quantum computing, rocket technology, MRI machines, as a coolant for chip lithography equipment, etc.
In a nutshell what he's explaining is that with helium the US had an even stronger card to play if China ever used the rare earths card.
The Chinese embarked on a crash program to develop helium extraction technologies and to nutralize other US controlled choke-points.
Now that this has been achieved, they can throw choke-points the United States' way.
Even if you don't admire the player, you have to admire the play.
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