Not good at all
But flat unemployment By ugly, I mean that
only 73,000 jobs were added to the non farm payrolls, and the total job growth for May and June was revised down by 250,000.
As I have noted before, you need around 125,000 new jobs to account for the natural growth of the workforce, so we have had 3 straight months of what amounts to a contracting job market.
Nonfarm payroll growth was slower than expected in July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, raising potential trouble signs for the U.S. labor market as President Donald Trump ramps up tariffs.
Job growth totaled a seasonally adjusted 73,000 for the month, above the June total of 14,000 but below even the meager Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. June and May totals were revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels.
At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with the forecast.
The June total came down from the previously stated 147,000, while the May count fell to just 19,000, revised down by 125,000.
Part of this could be reductions in the federal workforce:
………
However, federal government employment continued to decline, down 12,000 for the month and 84,000 since its January peak, before Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency began paring down the jobs rolls. Professional and business services lost 14,000.
Unemployment rose by 0.1% to 4.2%, which is basically just statistical noise.
Why the NFP growth has diverged from unemployment implies that something keeping people off of the market.
My completely uneducated guess is that two things are doing ths:
- Covid related disability.
- Large numbers of immigrants of various statuses leaving the counttry.
Generally though, I is confuzzled.
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