It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Continuing Claims (Same Time Frame)The recent unemployment numbers are confusing, and this week's numbers are not making it any clearer:

Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to a four-week low, adding to evidence that the job market remains healthy in the face of growing uncertainty tied to trade policy.

Initial claims decreased by 2,000 to 227,000 in the week ended May 17, roughly in line with forecasts, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The period includes the government’s survey week for its monthly employment report.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose to 1.9 million in the previous week.

Continuing claims do seem to indicate an upward trend, but not a a particularly steep trend.

Number indicate unemployment periods are getting longer for people.  (So does my personal experience)

In related news, housing appears to be stalling out :

………

While the labor market is holding up, the housing market continues to struggle and could remain sluggish as the bond market selloff drives up mortgage rates.

Existing home sales slipped 0.5% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units, the National Association of Realtors said in a third report.

Sales last month were the slowest for April since 2009, marking a weak start to the spring selling season. Housing inventory soared 9.0% to 1.45 million units, the highest in more than four years.
"The market is slowly but steadily shifting in favor of buyers, but more listings will be needed to bring sales out of the cellar," said Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide.

"High mortgage rates and uncertainty about forward financial conditions may cause many buyers to put off a home purchase this year and wait for a more stable environment. We see the housing market slump continuing through the end of the year."

When juxtaposed with a disastrous US bond auction yesterday, I think that something is brewing:

IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHY STOCKS JUST ALL WENT DOWN AT ONCE

WE JUST HAD A HORRIBLE BOND AUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES FOR OUR 20-YEAR TREASURIES

Because of the lack of bidders…it caused the 20-year bond yield to surge to 5.1%.

Credit market is screaming for help right now. pic.twitter.com/ne14v5PaVm

— amit (@amitisinvesting) May 21, 2025

A 106 basis point jump is end of the world stuff, it's a, "Human sacrifice. Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!" moment/i>

Trouble has been stirring in the bond market for weeks. On Wednesday, the anxiety spread to the stock market.

A weak auction for 20-year bonds exacerbated worries about rising deficits in Washington and drove sharp declines for stocks and bonds, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 800 points and the 30-year Treasury bond yield to the highest level since 2023.

………

The yield on 30-year Treasurys rose to 5.089%, the highest level since October 2023. Yields on 10-year government bonds rose to 4.595%.

The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.4%. The Dow shed 1.9%, or 817 points. The declines were broad-based, with 10 out of 11 of the S&P 500’s groups notching declines. 

It feels like that moment in a building demolition when you hear the explosions, but the building appears to still be standing.