15 May 2025

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We are basically treading water, with initial jobless claims unchanged and continuing claims falling a bit.

Not a clue as to what is happening with the jobs market: 

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, but job opportunities are becoming more scarce for those out of work as economic uncertainty from tariffs discourages businesses from boosting hiring.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 229,000 for the week ended May 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 229,000 claims for the latest week.

………

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.881 million during the week ending May 3, the claims report showed. That aligns with a surge in the median duration of unemployment to 10.4 weeks in April from 9.8 weeks in March.

On the other hand, US factory output fell for the first time in 6 months: 

US factory production declined in April for the first time in six months, marking a soft start to the second quarter for manufacturers encumbered by higher import duties.
The 0.4% decrease in manufacturing production followed an upwardly revised 0.4% gain a month earlier, Federal Reserve data showed Thursday. Excluding autos, factory production fell 0.3% in April.

Overall industrial production was unchanged. Output at utilities increased, while mining and energy extraction dropped.

The retreat in manufacturing, which accounts for three-fourths of total industrial production, followed a healthy advance in the first quarter as many customers boosted orders before the brunt of President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect. Recent months also included a ramp-up in the production of aircraft.

It seems to me that the pre-tariff panic buying is receding now, and with inventories high, orders to factories are receding.

What does this all mean?

F%$# if I know.

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