They Got Him

The toll so farYesterday, I heard that Israel had launched an airstrike at Hezbollah headquarters in an attempt to kill its leader Hassam Nasrallah.

Today, at synagogue, our rabbi announced that the strike had been successful, and he was dead.

Thankfully, I had enough self-possession not to pump my fist in the air as a celebratory gesture, which says something about my state of mind.

That being said, I think that it is highly likely that Hezbollah's ability to prosecute this conflict will be constrained for the short term, but not in the long term.

In the long term, any effects on Hezbollah and its conflict with Israel will be a function of what policies are adopted by new leadership of the party.

That last bit, "The party," is an important part of any calculus.

Hezbollah is not a militia, it is a polity that operates a militia, and as such, the militia is a tool of the party. (It is a fact of life in Lebanon that political parties need to have an armed wing)

As to what the policies of Hezbollah under new leadership will be, damned if I know. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

As to Iran's relationship to, and support of Hezbollah, is likely to be largely unchanged.

Iran's primary justification for supporting Hezbollah is not as a part of making war on Israel, but rather that it sees itself as a defender of Shia Muslim communities across the world.

As such, Iran will likely to provide similar levels of support.

I should note here that this sort of imperative is not unique to Iran.

In France, for example, there is broad consensus across their polity that France has a moral obligation to support the French language and French culture in its former colonial possessions.

In the United States, there is a similar consensus that it must be the indispensable nation, which has led America into many self-destructive and expensive adventures.

In the long run, I expect the conflict to continue, and I expect that Benjamin Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) to continue to be the greatest threat that Israel faces for its continued survival.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.

Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah and one of Israel's most formidable enemies, was killed on Friday in a massive Israeli airstrike on Beirut. Israel confirmed his death on Saturday morning.

………

Nasrallah, 64, led Hezbollah for 32 years, since Israel assassinated his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, in 1992. His charismatic leadership and political savvy made him one of the most influential figures in Lebanon and the wider Middle East.

The Israeli strike on Hezbollah's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut also killed the commander of the organization's southern front, Ali Karaki, as well as the commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, Abbas Nilforushan.

According to estimates by Israeli defense officials, about 300 people were killed in the air force strike. Some of the victims were in nearby buildings. IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the facility that was targeted is located underneath residential buildings.