If Rahm is Gone, What Does It Mean?

Cenk Uygur looks at Dana Millbank's recent big wet kiss to Rahm Emanuel, and concludes that Rahm Emanuel is on his way out:

My second thought was, "Wow, what a hatchet job on Jarrett, Gibbs and Axelrod!" Since Rahm is obviously feeding this to Milbank, that is very revealing. You don't throw these kinds of bombs unless you've already lost. This is an act of desperation. It's bound to make mortal enemies of these people inside Obama's inner circle. You can't really work with these people anymore. That means you're already finished there.

This is basically Rahm saying on his way out, I was right all along and these guys were wrong. ………

I hope that he is right, but Taylor Marsh sees a bigger picture, and it is scary:

But what if the problem isn’t Rahm?

It’s the question most Democrats can’t, won’t or refuse to face, because they can’t do anything about the answer. Because if they pretend it’s all about Rahm, hoping for his ouster, at least Democrats might get a re-set. With Gibby, Axe, Val and now even Dave still around, it’s better than nothing."

Rahm Emanuel has some less than savory, and I think downright destructive characteristics, but Barack Obama is not simply some passive actor here; The problems here are clearly Barack Obama's responsibility, his desk is where the buck stops, but it's also likely that it's his fault, and that his missteps on healthcare, stimulus, DADT, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.

The question is whether these are mistakes, or an artifact of who Barack Obama is.

I fear that this is the latter, because mistakes can be fixed, but if the attempts to make nice and split the difference is at Obama's core, then we are screwed.

Pay Per View Review

It was time for another family movie night, and Charlie chose Up (2009).

Edward Asner...Carl Fredricksen (voice)
Christopher Plummer...Charles Muntz (voice)
Jordan Nagai...Russell (voice)
Bob Peterson...Dug / Alpha (voice)
Delroy Lindo...Beta (voice)
Jerome Ranft...Gamma (voice)
John Ratzenberger...Construction Foreman Tom (voice)
David Kaye...Newsreel Announcer (voice)
Elie Docter...Young Ellie (voice)
Jeremy Leary...Young Carl (voice)

There are some parts that are very funny, but at its core it's not a funny film, it's melancholy.

The issues that are significant parts of plot are about infertility or the loss of a child, the loss of a spouse, the abandonment of a child by his father, and the descent of a childhood hero into murderous obsession.

It is well scripted, well animated, and visually arresting, and it is in its own way rather sweet and touching, but I found it to be a basically sad film.

It's a good film, but it's much darker than the normal animated fare.

Here's a Surprise

It turns out that the Wall Street firms who set up structured finance instruments, ostensibly to spread risk among many investors, actually concentrated risk, which means that they were charging money from their customers to screw their customers.

Why aren't these people being frog marched out of their offices in handcuffs?

Obama Finally Comes Out With a Healthcare Plan

So, after months of deferring to Congress, and pissing away much of the political initiative, has finally released a proposal.

It's not a full bill, it's just a proposal, so it's about 14 pages long, and it's pretty much an exercise in splitting the baby, as Igor Volsky's handy table shows.

Yep, once again, when there is a possibility to do something bold, Obama splits the difference, and dumps the public option, because an actual statement of policy, as opposed to just splitting the difference would be "distasteful".

Seriously, what does he actually believe in?

(Table after break)

I Guess the Name Ig Nobel Prize Was Taken

So instead, the award for the, " the economist most responsible for causing the Global Financial Crisis, " is called the "Dynamite Prize in Economics," and the winner is Alan Greenspan, with Milton Friedman and Larry Summers getting 2^nd and 3^rd places in the competition:

Dynamite Prize Citations

Alan Greenspan (5,061 votes): As Chairman of the Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006, Alan Greenspan both led the over expansion of money and credit that created the bubble that burst and aggressively promoted the view that financial markets are naturally efficient and in no need of regulation.

Milton Friedman^* (3,349 votes): Friedman propagated the delusion, through his misunderstanding of the scientific method, that an economy can be accurately modeled using counterfactual propositions about its nature. This, together with his simplistic model of money, encouraged the development of fantasy-based theories of economics and finance that facilitated the Global Financial Collapse.

Larry Summers (3,023 votes): As US Secretary of the Treasury (formerly an economist at Harvard and the World Bank), Summers worked successfully for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which since the Great Crash of 1929 had kept deposit banking separate from casino banking. He also helped Greenspan and Wall Street torpedo efforts to regulate derivatives.

Greenspan was a shoe-in.

^*Full disclosure: While I never met the Milton Friedman, I have met his son, David, and have had a fair number of online discussions with him on our mutual hobby of history and living history.

American Dynamics Flight Systems: LH Series Launchers

One of the recent developments in air to ground munitions has been the addition of guidance to the 2.75 inch FFAR (Folding-Fin Aerial Rocket) in the form of the of the laser guided APKWS (Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System) and DAGR (Direct Attack Guided Rocket).

This venerable weapons system, originally developed as an air to air weapon in the 1940s, found its niche as an unguided air to ground weapon, but with the addition of laser guidance, this system has the very real ability to in precision strike roles that do not require the weight, and cost of an existing system.

Theoretically, this could allow for a rocket, now improved to "Hydra 70", to be used in scenarios for which the Hellfire is, pardon the pun, overkill to take out a room, or a guy in a truck.

M260(r) and M261 rocket launchers

The problem is that many of the applications for Hellfire are for smaller UAVs, the launcher for the 2.75" rocket, the M260 and M261 are too heavy and too draggy to be effectively carried.

As is clear from the photo, they have the aerodynamics of a garbage can.

Additionally, they are limited life items, with the aluminum missile tubes having a life of 32 firings.

The folks at ADFS have an improved variant geared toward the guided variant, which, unlike the unguided variant, does not require ripple firing in order to achieve a reasonable chance of hitting the target.

It has two aerodynamic caps on the front and rear of to provide greater streamlining, and there is a single door on both caps to provide for launching.

Both rotate in sync, and the door opens prior to firing, and then shut until the next round is to be fired.

LH Launcher firing sequence

Additionally, the launcher is made from high temperature composites, which allows for an essentially unlimited lifetime, as well as significant weight savings.

Comparison with existing systems

Interfaces between the aircraft and the launcher are supposed to be identical to the M260/M261 launchers.

I Want Him to Live and Spend the Rest of His Days in Gaol

Dick Cheney has been hospitalized with chest pains.

It Hurts to Say This

But good for Joe Lieberman, who is working to attach a repeal to Don't Ask Don't Tell to the next Pentagon appropriations bill.

Ouch....It hurts.

Economics Update

Chicago Fed Index

OK, the good news is that the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's national activity index was positiver, so we are back to something resembling treading water, and US commercial real estate prices rose 4.1% in December.

Yes, that is a month to month number, and a pretty big jump at that, though it's worth noting that, "prices are still down 29.2 percent year over year and 40 percent from the peak."

Additionally, short sales of have jumped again in January:

According to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, short sales accounted for a substantial 15.9 percent of home purchase transactions in January. This was well above the share of other distressed property activity – with damaged REO accounting for 13.4 percent of activity and move-in ready REO making up 13.8 percent.

The January figures represent a steady increase in short sale popularity. As recently as November of 2009, short sales accounted for 12.4 percent of the home purchase market, according to the Campbell report, behind move-in ready REO at 12.6 percent and nearly even with damaged REO transactions at 12.3 percent.

I would note that when you add short sales, damaged REO (basically foreclosures), and undamaged REO together, means that at least 43.1% of all sales.

In energy, oil continues to climb, approaching $80/bbl, and in currency, and the dollar was mixed.

Because if You Try Them In Federal Court, They Will Just

Plead guilty and cooperate with authorities and provide intelligence:

Terror suspect Najibullah Zazi, an immigrant from Afghanistan who was living in Denver, has admitted he planned to try to set off explosives to kill Americans, most likely in New York.

He also pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit murder in a foreign country and providing material support to a terrorist organization.

His guilty plea may mean even more for the war on terror, since it appears Mr. Zazi has agreed to cooperate with federal officials.

Should have waterboarded him, that would have shut him up.

Someone Needs to Go to Jail for a Very Long Time

Photo H/t boing boing

And I don't mean a sysop.

The Lower Merion School District has issued laptops to its high school students, and someone has been activating the webcams to spy on children.

This came to a head, when Harriton High School Assistant Principal Lindy Matsko confronted sophomore Blake Robbins about his suspicious consumption of Mike & Ike candies, they look like pills.

What's more that Mr. Robbins experience appears not to be unique:

If the allegations of spying prove to be true, Blake may not be the only victim. Other students claim they've seen their webcam go live while off school grounds and worry they've been spied on too.

“Occasionally a green light would go on, on your computer which would kind of give you the feeling that somebody’s watching you,” Harriton High School student Drew Scheier told NBC Philadelphia Thursday.

Subpoenas have been issued by the US Attorney, and the FBI is investigating the matter as a potential criminal act.

If anyone activated those cameras, there was a possibility that the children who had them might have been in front of the camera, and that they might have been a state of undress, which makes one of the charges something along the lines of soliciting child pr0n.

It doesn't matter whether it was a pedophile looking for young bodies, or someone looking for funny pix for the office Christmas party, anyone involved in this, and anyone who knew of this and did not go to police, should go to jail.

Deep Thought

This explains the world:

As a kid you see the world as being divided into grown ups and kids . . . and grown ups are all smart and they know everything and they run the world, and kids are just kids. Then you grow up and realize grown ups are just a bunch of f%$#ing idiots, they're just tall.

-- Unmutual, on the the by invitation only Stellar Parthenon BBS.

Good News on the Broadband Front

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The Phone Company

When one compares broadband in the US and the rest of the developed world, we discover that that in the US we have higher prices, and lower performance, much like our healthcare system.

What is common in both is that markets are controlled largely by monopolistic,^* and largely unregulated, for profit private companies.

Well, now it looks like the FCC will be ordering the large players to lease lines to their competitors:

AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. would be forced to lease fast Internet lines to rivals providing Web services to small businesses under a proposal being weighed by U.S. regulators.

The biggest U.S. phone companies have told the Federal Communications Commission that opening access to lines they laid would curb their incentive to continue spending billions of dollars expanding high-speed service. The FCC’s decision “will significantly affect investment in fiber-based networks,” line- maker Corning Inc. said in a filing with the agency.

The idea, proposed to the FCC by computer-services company Cbeyond Inc., has support from the Small Business Administration, which said it could spur job creation. The plan would add to competition for business clients, who are also being courted by cable providers led by Comcast Corp. and Time Warner Cable Inc.

Players like AT&T and Verizon make much of their profits from doing business under either a monopoly of a duopoly environment, and this is a start to creating meaningful competition.

^*Full disclosure: I have Verizon^® Fios^™., so I receive my connectivity from one of these, "monopolistic, and largely unregulated, for profit private companies."

Signs of the Apocalypse, IMF Edition

The IMF is coming out in favor of capital controls for developing nations:

International Monetary Fund economists, reversing the fund's past opposition to capital controls, urged developing nations to consider using taxes and regulation to moderate vast inflows of capital so they don't produce asset bubbles and other financial calamities. It said emerging markets with controls in place had fared better than others in the global downturn.

The recommendation is the IMF's firmest embrace of capital controls and a reversal of advice it gave developing nations just three years ago. The IMF has long championed the free flow of capital, as a corollary to the free flow of trade, to help developing countries prosper. But the global financial crisis has prompted the fund to rethink long-held beliefs. It recently suggested the world might be better off with a higher level of inflation than central bankers now are targeting.

(emphasis mine)

I think that a lot of this has to do with the Asian financial crisis 13 years ago, and the fact that the only nation to implemented capital controls, Malaysia, was through the crisis with a lot less pain than their Asian neighbors.

It only took them 13 years, and an increasingly hostile response from the developing world, for them to get the message.

Well, it's to their credit that it happened before some high level official visiting a 3^rd world nation in crisis was actually lynched by an angry crowd, which puts them ahead of American investment bankers, Larry Summers, and Timothy Geithner, I guess.

Anthrax Terrorism Case Officially Closed

So, the FBI says that it's case closed.

I've been following this for some time, and as I have noted before, I'm not certain of this.

I Said that This Would Happen

I said that there would be blowback when GM decided not to sell Opel and suck up all the state aid itself, and it appears taht I was right

We are now seeing that the taskforce reviewing GM's plans with Opel is saying that, they are inadequate, and aid should not be awarded:

General Motors’ restructuring plan for Opel/Vauxhall has been dealt a potentially serious setback on Wednesday after a German government taskforce said it had doubts about the scheme.

The US carmaker presented the turnaround plan for its lossmaking European operations last week and formally applied to Berlin for €1.5bn ($2bn) in loans or guarantees – the biggest portion of the €3.3bn it says it needs to finance its plan.

However, the federal task force advising Berlin on GM’s plans has deemed the proposals “unqualified for government loan guarantees”, three officials in German states with GM plants told the Financial Times on Wednesday.

(emphasis mine)

Part of the reason for this, though it is not explicitly spoken, is the belief that GM will strip mine Opel to support its US operations.

There has been a tepid denial from the board about this report, but I'm inclined to believe that they want guarantees that the money is not going to Detroit.

Another Must Read from Krugman

He's talking about free trade and transportation costs, and makes the point that when the costs of transporting goods falls relative to manufacturing goods and services, as they did in the 1870-1913 era, international trade increases, and when the costs of manufacturing goods falls relative to transporting goods, as they did in the era of Henry Ford's assembly line, pre containerized cargo 1913-1970 or so, international trade falls.

Go read, it's 599 words well spent.

Te Stoopid, It Burns US!!!!!

This clusterf%$# comes with a poll

Atrios calls it, "A Great Contribution To The Art Of High Wanking," but the Washington Post calls it Jeffrey Rosen's article, "Supreme Court Justice Barack Obama?"

While there is precedent, William Howard Taft became a Supreme Court justice after being President, only the interval was 18 years between the two offices, and Rosen is suggesting that he cut a deal with Hillary Clinton, and that she agrees to appoint him, in exchange for his not running in 2012:

It would be unusual, but not difficult, for Obama to get himself on the Supreme Court. He could nominate himself to replace John Paul Stevens, for example, or he could gamble and promise Hillary Rodham Clinton that he won't run for reelection in 2012 in exchange for a pledge of appointment to the next vacancy. And although as president, Obama has seemed haunted by the example of his political hero, Abraham Lincoln, on the Supreme Court he could take up the mantle of the greatest liberal justice of the 20th century, Louis Brandeis, another community organizer with a background in politics. In the end, Obama's legacy on the court might surpass his legacy in the White House.

(emphasis mine)

Nominate himself? Is he out of his mind?

And a promise from Clinton would be crucial, because, of course, no one can successfully oppose a Hillary Clinton primary campaign; she is just unstoppable.

Jeebus, it's like they have some sort of competition in front of Post editorial page editor Fred Hiatt has some sort of bizarre audition in which they tell people to come up with the stupidest idea, and they get to go on to the next round.

It's like some of kind of perverted American idol for stupid, and I think that my eyes are now bleeding as a result.

The Russians Have Repainted the T-50

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It cleans up good

They have applied the Russian air force blue and white camp scheme.

This is not surprising.

In related unsurprising news, the folks at Air Power Australia have looked at the T-50 (PAK-FA), and determined that it's 10 feet tall and requires the resumption of F-22 production this very minute.

I don't doubt these guys technical chops, but I knew what they would say as soon as I saw the link.

They are kind of predictable.

Damn!

Turns out that Star Trek is impossible.

At 99.999998% of the speed of light, the the radiation from interstellar hydrogen striking your ship will fry you like an egg:

Professor William Edelstein of the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine explained to New Scientist that while interstellar space has just a couple of hydrogen atoms per cubic centimetre, as the crew of the Enterprise hit the gas pedal, a compression effect would greatly increase the number of atoms hitting the spacecraft.

As the spaceship reached 99.999998 per cent of the speed of light, "hydrogen atoms would seem to reach a staggering 7 teraelectron volts", which for the crew "would be like standing in front of the Large Hadron Collider beam".

This is a very bad thing, because humans in the path of this ray would receive a dose of ionising radiation of 10,000 sieverts, and as Bones McCoy would doubtless confirm, the lethal dose is 6 sieverts.

The result? Death in one second.

And I was so looking forward to green alien dancing girls.

Well, I guess that there is always recombinant DNA technology.

Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) Has Cancer

They are expecting a "full and complete recovery," but he's 86, and a "full and complete recovery" is frequently predicted in cases that prove terminal:

Sen. Frank Lautenberg, the nation's second oldest U.S. senator, has curable lymphoma of the stomach, his office said Friday.

Doctors for the 86-year-old Democrat found B-cell lymphoma that will require treatment over the next few months, spokesman Caley Gray said in a news release.

Mr. Lautenberg will undergo six to eight chemotherapy treatments and should make a "full and complete recovery,'' said James Holland of New York City's Mount Sinai Medical Center.

Calculated Risk: FDIC Bank Failure Update

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2008, 2009, 2010

FDIC Bank Failures by Year
2007	3
2008	25
2009	140
2010	20
Total	188

Calculated Risk gives us this very useful table and graph to use to look at bank closing trends for the year.

To quote Bette Davis, "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night!"

Vulture Capitalists Need to be Slapped down

I would suggest prosecutions of the folks who are pursuing Russia regarding bonds issued by the Czar:

The Russian government vowed to “defend our rights” after French holders of czarist bonds valued at as much as 100 billion euros ($137 billion) threatened to sue the Kremlin and seize property it owns in Paris.

“May God help them,” Viktor Khrekov, a spokesman for the Kremlin Property Department, said by phone today from Moscow, after the Paris-based International Federative Association for Russian Bond Holders, or AFIPER, pledged to sue to recoup part of the century-old debt.

The empire of Russia has not existed since 1917.

That country was liquidated, along with Czar Nicholas and his family.

People are buying this stuff at cents on the dollar, and then attempting to get be enough of an annoyance to coerce some payments out of sovereign nations.

It's particularly egregious behavior because France and Russia had a final settlement since 1996.

Surely, if terrorism statutes can be used against the reserves of Icelandic banks, it can be used against these extortionists.

Napoleon Bonaparte is Smiling

The French will be taking control of the port of Dover.

Well, it's not really the French, it's the Nord-pas-de-Calais regional council, which will be assuming control as a part of a privatization scheme:

A plan to privatise the government-owned Port of Dover has provoked "outrage", not least because the French are front-runners to take control of the facility.

According to the Daily Mail, the port needs money to fund an expansion plan, and selling it off could net £350m for our cash-strapped government. The harbour board expects to receive the go-ahead for the "voluntary privatisation", which will likely see Nord-pas-de-Calais regional council, which also owns Calais, adding Dover to its roster of ports.

Chief exec Bob Goldfield explained: "The time is right for the voluntary privatisation of Dover. We want to invest around £400m on a second terminal and need to invest in the existing terminal, but are unable to because of public sector borrowing constraints. We want to throw off the shackles."

I generally oppose privatization, even if it isn't the French taking over Dover, and the justification, about avoiding "public sector borrowing constraints," sounds to me like a recipe for a future bankruptcy and taxpayer bailout.

"Throwing off shackles," in a finance context generally means, "Engaging in dodgy behavior."

But still the short Frenchman is up there, or down there, having a good chuckle.

Son of FCS-MGV* Looks Like a Repeat Fail

With the cancellation of the US Army's FCS-MGV system, the 20 ton class (30 ton+ in operational use), the army has been cast about for a vehicle to fill the role, and they have found it in their ground combat vehicle (GCV) program, which is supposed to have, the "urban mobility of a Stryker, with the off-road capability of a Bradley and the survivability of an MRAP," while being C-130 transportable. (see also here)

Truth be told, a slightly improved Bradley, particularly one that has the manned turret replaced with an external remotely operated one, which would allow for a single vehicle to carry a full 9 man squad, but the way that it is all phrased does seem to be an invitation to mission and cost creep juxtaposed with schedule slippage.

By "urban mobility," they mean "road speed", though I noted about 3 months ago that they were calling for the "sustainability of a Stryker".

With improved tracks and propulsion, the road mobility can be achieved, though it would still be more maintenance intensive, and less fuel efficient than a wheeled vehicle.

In any case, the Army is looking to spend about a billion bucks on developing the GCV, and they have already delayed the review, though they are claiming, with some justification, I might add, that this was a result of the snowpocalypse.

My inclination would be to look toward improving existing systems, or purchasing and making minor modifications to foreign systems.

^*Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, "wrecker" variant of the FCS-MGV^† from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts).
^†Future Combat Systems-Manned Ground Vehicle. These are the ones that are the tanks and APCs. As opposed to the various unnmanned vehicles, networking technologies, etc. that form the full FCS along with the MGVs.^‡
‡Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can't hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as "technical hit man", where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

Deep Thought

With Greece mired in a debt crisis of their own making, and coming to the EU for aid, perhaps one of the conditions for any aid should be for them to stop being so pissy about admitting Macedonia to the EU, because the Greeks want to claim Alexander the Great was "Greek."

He was a Macedonian, who led a nation that did not speak Greek, though he, as a royal child, was tutored by the best Greek scholars, and doubtless spoke Greek, albeit with a foreign accent.

But, even if he were Greek, it was 2000 years ago, and the government of Greece needs to focus on the hear and now.

Putting Lipstick on a Pig

The ongoing military operations in Iraq have been renamed Operation New Dawn.

More "Change we can believe in," I guess.

More on Bybee and Yoo, and the Lessons Learned Therein

Courtesy of Chris Floyd:

"Children, the law is nothing but a rag smeared with blood and sh%$.

"It is only for suckers, rubes and losers.

"Claw your way to the top -- by any means necessary -- and the law can never touch you.

"This is the American way."

This is the message of Barack Obama and His Evil Minions^™ determination not to prosecute, nor review in the smallest way by the bar association, the contemptible actions of the worst of the wrong doers amongst Bush and His Evil Minions^™.

Alexander Haig is Dead at 85

In the 1980s, I was always rather contrarian, maintaining that Alexander Haig, who died today, was among the most competent and most sane of the members of Reagan's cabinet, though that is damning with faint praise.

I think that he understood and appreciated our NATO allies more than most people in the foreign policy establishment.

One interesting note, he was a west pointer, and graduated 217 out of a class of 310, which may imply that success at the Point is orthogonal to success later in life.

I love this quote about him:

Never much of a politician, Gen. Haig in 1988 made a brief presidential run, often described by commentators at the time as "quixotic." Borrowing a phrase from a supporter, the comedian Mort Sahl, he announced he was "throwing my helmet into the ring." But he withdrew before the primaries.

Considering the fact that he was a Kissinger protégé, he was relatively non evil, which is again damning with faint praise.

Dutch Ruling Coalition Collapses Over Afghanistan Commitment

The Labor Party has pulled out of government over a proposal to extend the tour of Dutch forces in the region, leaving Christian Democratic Alliance head, and Prim Minister Jan Peter Balkenende no choice but to dissolve government.

What is interesting here is that the troops were supposed to return in 2008, but have remained deployed because no replacements could be found amongst other NATO members, and Labor pulled out as a result.

This means that elections will be held a year ahead of time, probably in May, and that the main issue is likely to be the deployment of Dutch troops to Afghanistan, and given the nature of the electorate in Holland, and Europe generally, I think that the parties who favor immediate withdrawal are likely to gain the upper hand.

This may have political significance to other nations deploying troops to the campaign.

Why I Believe that Blasphemy Is a Basic Human Right

Because this is funny as hell!

I understand that some might consider it blasphemous, but that's your problem, not mine.

Yes, This is the Rolling Stones

And, yes, they are selling Rice Crispies in 1963:

It's Bank Failure Friday!!!!

And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

17. Marco Community Bank, Marco Island, FL
    
18. The La Coste National Bank, La Coste, TX
    
19. George Washington Savings Bank, Orland Park, IL
    
20. La Jolla Bank, FSB, La Jolla, CA
    

So, nothing last week, and 4 this week.

Full FDIC list

Here is the chart pr0n:

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

In a good way.

Harry Reid has just said that he will support the public option in healthcare reform via reconciliation.

Yes, we are have porcine aviation.

I Feel Your Pain

CCR edition

It Appears that $1,000,000.00+ a Year is not Enough to Do Your Damn Job

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Waiting for one of They Who Must Not Be Named to talk

At least not if you work in finance.

You see someone prominent gave a talk about personal transgressions, and they decided to take time off, and watch the TV.

You know, for the amount of money that you are making, I would suggest that you just Tivo it!

Seriously, I really need to go long on tarred and feathered bankers futures.

Core Inflation Fell For the First Time in 28 Years

Down 0.1% in January:

The cost of living in the U.S. rose in January less than anticipated and a measure of prices excluding food and fuel fell for the first time since 1982, indicating the recovery is generating little inflation.

The consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent for a fifth straight month, led by higher fuel costs, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Excluding energy and food, the so-called core index unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent, reflecting a drop in new-car prices, clothing and shelter.

And still, the Federal Reserve is full of people who are batsh%$ insane inflation hawks, and there are two seats open, but Obama has not bothered to appoint people who are, you know, saner, in what is clearly a deflationary environment.

American Dynamics Flight Systems: AD-1 UAV

AD-150 UAV

Startup company American Dynamics Flight Systems has been developing a UAV to address the needs of the various services for high speed cargo UAVS most notably the Marine Corps VTOL Group IV Program and Medium Programs, the USAF Unmanned Cargo VTOL UAV Program, and the US Coast Guard's VTOL UAV Program.

All of these programs are requiring fairly high speeds, a cruise at least 250 kts, which pretty much rules out a conventional helicopters which tend to cruise at less than 175 kts.

The solution that was adopted on the V-22 is a tilt rotor, where the propellers are pivoted from horizontal to vertical in the transition from horizontal flight to vertical takeoffs and landings.

Typical swashplate (source: Wikipedia

The issue with a tilt rotor system is that, even more than in a conventional helicopter, managing the transition from horizontal to vertical flight can become difficult and complex.

In the V-22, this is handled with a cyclic type control system that mirrors the swash plate type setups that exist on helicopters.

While this is obviously a known quantity in vertical lift mode, issues in transition to wing-borne flight had to be resolved before the tilt-rotor could become viable, there is a cost in complexity, cost, and reliability in using a complex prop assembly for such a system.

ADF Concept

Moves in pitch and yaw

The solution for the AD-1 is different. A ducted fan which is controllable in pitch and yaw, but where the pitch of the fan is fixed is used, the High Torque Aerial Lift (HTAL).

Pitch is obviously a given in any tilt rotor, which theoretically makes the addition of yaw actuators for the propulsors less complex, and hence lighter, cheaper, and more reliable than going with a full up cyclic control system.

Fixed Aluminum Prop

This sort of control system has been used in the past, at the dawn of the development of helicopters, where the use of tilting rotor hub, rather than a swash plate style cyclic was, for example, used by Raúl Pateras Pescara used this on his early helicopters in the 1920s, where he pitched the hub forward to allow for forward flight without the need for a separate propeller to provide lateral thrust.

The application to a tilt-rotor aircraft, and the use of rotor hub in yaw, appear to be unique, and a patent is pending.

Propulsor shroud panel

Additionally, the use of a shrouded propulsor provides for greater thrust/lift for a given disk area, by acting as a nozzle to accelerate flow.

The shrouds themselves have composite skins. The panel shown is well under 10 pounds.

The use of a shrouded prop should also simplify deck handling, since it mitigates against the possibility of someone walking into a moving prop, and there are added efficiencies because the down wash in vertical lift mode does not impinge on the wing.

All moving ruddervators

It should be noted that the aircraft has been designed from the outset to be low cost, and so notwithstanding its appearance, it is not designed to be a low-observable ("stealth") airframe.

The top mounted inlet is intended to minimize the possibility of FOD damage to the engine, the all moving ruddervators were developed after it was determined that a rear moving flap on a conventional rudder fin would not provide sufficient control authority, and the wing configuration is designed to minimize pitch changes during transition from vertical to horizontal flight.

Wind tunnel model

AD1 Development

ADF is relying heavily on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to determine the characteristics of the, and according to Paul Vasilescu, VP of Engineering, their experiences at the Paul Vasilescu Glen L. Martin wind tunnel at the University of Maryland have been closer to the calculated predictions than any prior systems tested at the facility.

The simulations are run on 64 bit Linux rack mount systems, with some of the more complex simulations, which are being modeled in 6 degrees of freedom.

Instrumented Test Rig

The propulsors have been modeled, both in full size, and at the reduced size in which they will be tested in the wind tunnel, which should serve to further validate the mathematical modeling.

It is anticipated that the propulsors will be tested in full scale on an "iron bird" instrumented test rig at Aberdeen Proving Ground, where ADFS hopes to, "Confirm CFD performance data for hover in ground effect (HIGE) and hover out of ground effect (HOGE)," later this year, using a T53 turboshaft, used on the original UH-1 models, but flight models will use the T700, which is currently in use on the AH-64 and UH-60.

The mechanical design is done in SolidWorks^®, which I've used extensively, and should be more than capable of generated the required geometries, though it's associated FEA package, Cosmos^®, is intended for less intensive analysis.

AD-1 Manufacturing Capabilities

Applied Dynamics Flight Systems has a 14,700 square foot manufacturing facility at the Jessup headquarters with 3 & 4 axis CNC mills, and anticipates being able to assemble 12 units a year upon receipt of a contract.

Manufacturing workshare

Paths not taken

At this point, the company does not believe that there is a reasonable market for civilian applications for UAVS, the FAA has not yet come up with a coherent regulatory environment, and the technology to allow UAVs to operate in civilian airspace, so called "sense and avoid" technology, is immature.

They believe the situation to be rather similar in terms of ambulance applications on the battle field, an area where the Israeli firm Urban Aeronautics' similarly sized Air Mule is attempting to carve out a niche, there are serious issues with landing aircraft into unprepared areas, as many of the cues that a pilot has in a cockpit are lost on a remote display, and so additional technology needs to be developed in terms of automated imaging and auto-landing systems before one can expect a UAV


Full presentation in PDF after the break.

Full size photos can be viewed by clicking on the images.

With the CPAC* Conference Going On

The first rule of Investment Banking Club is,
you do not talk about Investment Banking Club.

You generally know where to look for selfishness and an immature sense of entitlement, but Moe Tkacik finds something that makes the folks at CPAC looking like Mahatma Ghandi.

Rather unsurprisingly, she finds it on wall street, where the bankers are, "As mad as hell," about all the nasty things that people say about them ……… All while sucking down 7 figure salaries and bonuses.

You see, the bankers had a get together, and they invited her:

Still, I had heard of no plan for any sort of public up-close-and-personal plutocrat-on-plutocrat spectacle to give voice to the inchoate counterrevolution, no Millionaire's March offering group catharsis to the angry wealthy white. But on Tuesday, Jan. 26, I received a mass e-mail from Schwartz Communications with the subject: "Wall Street Strikes Back at White House."

It was held the trading floor of John Thomas^† Financial, and (yet again) it defies belief, but suffice it to say that there was a Republican candidate for the US Senate, the bald guy is the head of the firm, Anastasios (Thomas) Belesis, who is a piece of work all on his own:

Belesis's FINRA profile is similarly alarming. Investors have accused him of churning, fraud, excessive trading, breach of contract and other violations. Regulators have ordered him to repay investors more than a million dollars.

So, he's mad as hell, and he's not going to take it any more.

Of course, in a just world, he would be banned from the securities industry for life.

This story continues with epic tails of sexual harassment and the disposal whipped cream.

Just go read it.

^*Conservative Political Action Comittee
^†Yes, "John Thomas" is a bit of slang in Britain for a portion of the male anatomy, and it's very apt here, and yes, there is a real investment bank by that name.

Microsoft Is Outrourcing Legal Work to India

I have to admit that this development engenders no small amount of Schadenfreude:

Software giant Microsoft will begin outsourcing general legal work to India after signing a deal with legal process outsourcing (LPO) company CPA Global. The news comes as CPA outlined plans to expand its Indian workforce from 600 to 1,000 by the end of 2011, and hinted at opening another outsourcing centre.

Outsourcing to India: It's not just for engineers any more.

What I want to see is outsourcing applied to investment bankers and brokers.