18 April 2017

This is a Now Lose Situation

A special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional district is a no lose for the Democrats.

It's clear that John Ossof, the only serious Democratic candidate, is going to get the most votes, there are 11 votes in the so called "Jungle"primary, in which the top two vote getters to on to the runoff.

The only question is whether he breaks 50%, which would obviate the need for a runoff.

If he breaks 50%, then he is elected, and the seat has a Democrat for the first time since Gingrich was elected in 1978.

If he does not break 50%, then it is almost certain that he would lose the runoff, and the Obama/Clinton establishment playbook, recruit a Neoliberal carpetbagger, shower them with money ($8.3 million more than the rest of the other candidates combined) would get a black eye.*

Remember that the Democratic National Committee could not be bothered to fund a real liberal James Thompson to the tune of one direct mailing in Kansas, because it's more important to them that Bernie and his supporters lose than that Democrats win. (It was a 7% loss in a district that Trump carried by 40%.)

Once again, it's the Iron Rule of Institutions in action. 

I am so glad that I am not in GA-6:  I would have to choose between voting to make Republicans panicked, or slapping down the Democratic establishment, because it's clear that in 2018, when it matters, Ossoff will lose.

Polls close at 7pm, and I'll post an update around midnight.

*Which, of course, they would blame on Bernie Sanders.


Stephen Montsaroff said...

I believe that is No Lose.

That being said, I don't think your narrative dismissing Ossoff as just a tool is correct, Ryan Grim's description of the events jibes more with my memory.

"...[Elements of the left coalition suspect a lack of establishment support in those races is connected to that. Ossoff, a clean-cut 30-year-old running a fairly standard-issue campaign, seems more amenable to establishment Democrats.

But the theory that establishment Democrats ignored two races but poured money into a third has a major problem: They ignored Ossoff, too, at first. When national Democrats first looked at the suburban Atlanta race, precipitated by the nomination of former Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) to be health and human services secretary, the number-crunchers in Washington weren’t sure a Democrat would even emerge from the “jungle primary” in April ― let alone that they’d be eyeing a possible victory.

The party largely stayed away at first, but grassroots donors, fueled by Daily Kos and “The Rachel Maddow Show,” poured millions into the race. National Democrats who worried about the race becoming “nationalized” could no longer use that as a rationale to stay away, and the quiet help the party had been providing Ossoff became much more public.

Still, he didn’t need much help with fundraising once his race became the one activists around the country were following, and he has raised more than $8 million so far, most of it in small increments from donors around the country. Candidates get more favorable ad rates on TV than super PACs and other committees do, so there is little reason for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to spend money on the air. (That hasn’t stopped it from blasting its donors with subject lines like “MASSIVE loss,” trying to tap into some of the anxiety about the possibility of a loss"

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