21 November 2008

Economics Update

Well, let's start with where I got it really wrong, energy, where oil closed below $50/bbl, and retail gasoline prices fall below $2.00/gallon.

I was completely wrong on both counts about my predictions.

In the meantime, the credit crunch is savaging an industry highly dependent on venture capital, biotech.

In the long run, that may be a good thing, because when they aren't making money, they aren't lobbying Congress, which makes health care reform, at least for prescription drugs, that much easier.

In terms of the overall credit crisis, things still stink, though Calculated Risk's Credit Crisis Indicators are neutral in terms of spreads, there has been an incredible flight to US Treasuries, driving rates down to record lows.

Of course, we could be in Europe, where both manufacturing and services are dropping like a stone, and the Euro bank Prez is telegraphing another rate cut


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