Economics Update

The economy grew more than previously estimated in Q1 of 2008, at an 0.9% annual rate adjusted for CPI, as opposed to the previously reported 0.6%. Note that this still a contraction, as inflation, even the official bogus CPI understates true inflation by well over 1%.

Not surprisingly, treasuries fell, as the revised numbers show more potential for inflation.

New jobless claims rose +4000 to 372,000, just above the estimate of 370,000, which, to me at least, reinforces my thoughts on the trajectory of the economy.

Crude oil prices fell to $126.62/bbl, but retail gasoline hit another record. That's 22 straight days.

The FDIC issues a very grim report on banks, with bank profits falling by more than 50% and "problem" banks on the rise.

This is, of course, largely tied into the real estate bubble, which appears to be popping in Britain (yet again), with prices falling 2.5% over the last month, and 4.7% year over year.

In the US, I think that those people expecting a turn around will be disappointed, as 30 year fixed mortgage just topped 6%, with indications of more to come, particularly since selling the loans will become harder, as S&P just lowered the ratings on 1,326 Alt-A residential mortgage back securities (RMBS).